Rasmussen: John Hickenlooper 43%, Dan Maes 31%, Tom Tancredo 18%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 10:11 am, August 13, 2010

Governor-elect Obama Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Republican Dan Maes 43% to 31% while American Constitution Party candidate, Tom Tancredo, comes in third with 18% in the latest Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters in Colorado.
Rasmussen Reports now ranks Colorado “solid Democrat” for governor. Impact graph:
Just 59% of Republican voters in the state now support Maes, while Hickenlooper picks up 82% of voters in his own party. Tancredo, an outspoken opponent of illegal immigration, captures 25% of GOP voters. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Hickenlooper earns 35% of the vote, Maes 28% and Tancredo 24%.
Look for that 59% of Republican voters who are supporting Maes to shrink dramatically. Hickenlooper probably will gain among unaffiliateds while Tancredo will gain more support from Republicans as voters learn more about Maes’ fumbles and stumbles during his campaign and when he was in business. Tancredo should gain support as voters learn more about what he wants to do for Colorado. LINK: http://www.rasmussenreports.com.

Jane Norton 45%, Ken Buck 43%; Michael Bennet 49%, Andrew Romanoff 43%; McInnis, Maes tied

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 12:32 pm, August 9, 2010

Public Policy Polling shows Jane Norton leading Ken Buck in the GOP’s U.S. Senate contest 45% to 43% with 12% undecided. That makes that race a toss-up.
Scott McInnis leads Dan Maes in the GOP’s gubernatorial contest 41% to 40% with 19% undecided. It’s a toss-up.
Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff in the Democrats’ U.S. Senate primary 49% to 43% with 9% undecided.
LINK:
Bennet favored, GOP gov. and sen. primaries up in the air. Public Policy Polling.
h/t Coloradopols

John Hickenlooper 43%, Scott McInnis 25%, Tom Tancredo 24%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 9:12 pm, August 3, 2010

The latest Rasmussen poll shows that Colorado voters want a conservative voter by 49% to 51% over Obama Democrat John Hickenlooper who gets 42% to 43% depending on who he’s facing.
The automated phone survey conduced on Monday, Aug. 2, shows that Hickenlooper gets 43% to 25% for the fading Scott McInnis and 24% for Tom Tancredo. When Dan Maes is the GOP candidate, Hickenlooper gets 42% vs. 27% for Maes and 24% for Tancredo. Hickenlooper hasn’t been running ads against the Republicans nor they against him. This means that once the campaign ramps up after Labor Day, these numbers are likely to change dramatically as voters become more aware of Tancredo’s platform and the ethical and competence questions facing McInnis or Maes become big campaign issues.
Also, Tancredo only entered the gubernatorial contest last Thursday, and while he’s gotten plenty of free publicity, he hasn’t run any ads against Hickenlooper, Maes or McInnis. 
LINKS:
Election 2010: Colorado Governor. Rasmussen Reports.

Andrew Romanoff 48%, Michael Bennet 45%; Ken Buck 50%, Jane Norton 41%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 3:07 pm, August 1, 2010

The Republican and Democratic parties’ U.S. Senate primaries are toss ups.
Andrew Romanoff leads appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet 48% to 45% with 8% undecided, according to a USA Survey poll sponsored by 9News and the Denver Post. That’s a dramatic improvement for Romanoff from a month ago when Bennet led Romanoff 53% to 36%. Because mail voting has been underway for more than a week and has 10 days to go, it’s hard to tell whether Romanoff can hold off a late charge by the well funded Bennet.
In the GOP’s race, Ken Buck leads Jane Norton 50% to 41%. That’s more than opposite the 5-point lead that the Washington Post reported that an unnamed pollster gave Norton last week. Beware of unnamed pollsters. Buck’s obviously doing the best of the four Senate candidates in the polls.
See the links below to see the matchups between the Republicans and Democrats, but they don’t mean much at this point.
The survey also found that J. J. Ament leads in the GOP’s Treasurer contest 39% to 36% for Walker Stapleton. Ament is the GOP activists’ favorite because he has long roots in Colorado. Stapleton has avoided meeting Ament in at least eight scheduled joint appearances and reportedly is avoiding most contact with Republicans and voters. He is using his wealth to fund his campaign and is spending a lot of money on negative broadcast and direct mail ads against Ament. Having interviewed both guys, the ads look misleading and specious to me, and that calls Stapleton’s integrity into question, I think. He’s buying the nomination and doing whatever it takes to win. Because of Stapleton’s unfair and misleading ads against Ament, relatively few Republican activists will care if he beats incumbent Treasurer Cary Kennedy in the fall if he’s nominated.
LINKs:
Poll: Romanoff barely beating Bennet; Maes ahead of Mcinnis. by Christina Dickinson, 9News.
Romanoff pulls even with Bennet, poll finds. By Allison Sherry, Denver Post.
Ken Buck for Colorado.
Jane Norton for Colorado.
Survey USA. Survey USA is considered a credible pollster.
 

Politically incorrect Ken Buck losing to Jane Norton?

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 11:52 pm, July 30, 2010

Ken Buck’s politically incorrect complaint about a few birthers who gave him hard times at Tea Party events and his allegedly sexist quip about Jane Norton’s high heels may cost him the GOP’s Aug. 10 Senate primary, according to an unnamed pollster cited by a Washington Post political blogger.
Birthers say President Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. and isn’t legally qualified to serve as president, but most Americans discount their claim and, like Buck, don’t want to hear anymore about it.
Of course, I’ve been predicting that Buck’s high heels quip could cost him, especially because Norton came up with a great ad that implies that Buck is sexist because he made the dumb joke. That Norton has joked about her gender in the campaign apparently hasn’t softened the negative impact of his comment or of the ad. And that the Norton campaign made the ad using an unattributed film clip without the permission of its owner, http://www.peoplespresscollective.com, probably isn’t on voters’ radar screens. The Buck campaign is making a big issue of the web site’s complaints about how Norton improperly used its clip, but so far, it’s an insiders’ debate.
How Buck’s complaint that a few people who attended Tea Party events were disruptive could hurt him is a bit hard to understand. The complaint may be a problem for Buck because it initially looked like he was calling everyone involved with Tea Parties dumbaxx “birthers.” 
Most curious is that WaPo’s The Fix would report the results of a poll conducted by an unnamed pollster. That pollster is saying that Norton leads Buck by five percentage points. Who the pollster is and works for and how and when the poll was conducted are not reported by Chris Cillizza who writes The Fix.
However, the poll results have some credibility in light of the latest Rasmussen Reports’ poll. It shows Norton with a nine point lead over appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet, compared with Buck’s six-point lead. But Buck has a six-point lead over Bennet’s primary challenger, Andrew Romanoff. Norton leads Romanoff by four percentage points. Both primaries look like toss-ups.
So while I’ve been saying that it appears that Norton has the momentum and that Buck is on defense, I’m not ready to declare Norton the winner of the primary. This mildly negative personality contest is still a toss-up until we get better information or until the primary is held.
LINKs:
Colorado primary provides fireworks a-plenty. By Chris Cillizza.
Norton attack ad [film clip] improperly taken from Peoples Press Collective video. 
Election 2010: Colorado Senate. By Rasmussen Reports.

Jane Norton 48%, Michael Bennet 39%; Ken Buck 48%, Bennet 42%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 4:53 pm, July 27, 2010

Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton beats appointed Obama Democrat 48% to 39%, and her opponent, Ken Buck, beats Bennet 48% to 42%. Norton beats Andrew Romanoff, 44% to 40% and Buck beats Romanoff 48% to 42%, according to Rasmussen Reports.
“Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republicans by double-digit margins to their Democratic opponents, Rasmussen said.
Independents decide close elections, and this is good news for the GOP candidate who wins the party’s Aug. 10 primary.
The GOP primary race is so close and moving so quickly with new attack ads and changes in the political environment that Rasmussen is calling it a toss-up. That seems about right.
CORRECTION: Rasmussen is calling the Colorado Senate race a toss-up, not the Colorado GOP primary race, which I think is also a toss-up. Link: Election 2010: Colorado Senate. Rasmussen Reports.

Three polls show Scott McInnis is losing up to 64% of his previous supporters

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 2:13 pm, July 16, 2010

Three polls released today show that in only three or four days Scott McInnis has lost 20% to 64% of his previous supporters depending on how the questions were asked because of his plagiarism and ethics scandal. The Denver Post broke McInnis’ plagiarism scandal Tuesday.
These poll results probably will freeze McInnis’ fundraising, and if nothing else does, that could force him to drop out of the governor’s race.
The Denver Post found that 64% of registered Republicans—not necessarily likely voters—who supported McInnis prior to learning about the plagiarism scandal no longer support him when he is matched against other candidates. This is a tremendous blow against McInnis even though in response to a more general question that didn’t name alternative candidates, 20% of his backers said they no longer support him and 39% said they still back him, the Post announced on its web site. Of registered Republicans, nearly half said McInnis should stay in the race and 37% said he should drop out, the Post said.
In addition to the Post’s poll, Rasmussen Reports announced poll results that show Obama Democrat John Hickenlooper is leading McInnis for the first time 45% to 43%. Rasmussen’s poll of likely voters found that 35% of them think McInnis should quit the governor’s race and 36% don’t.
And fellow Rocky Mountain Alliance blogger Ben DeGrow announced that a poll he has conducted on his blog shows that 59% of the mostly conservative participants in his poll think McInnis should quit the governor’s race. DeGrow also announced that he can’t support McInnis or his opponent, Dan Maes, in the Aug. 10 GOP primary.
When the Post asked registered Republican voters who would be the party’s strongest candidate against John Hickenlooper, the responses were:
Tom Tancredo 29%
Scott McInnis 19%
Dan Maes 13%
Jane Norton 11%
Josh Penry 7%
Bruce Benson 3%.
Not sure 17%.
The Post, Fort Collins Coloradoan and Grand Junction Sentinel have joined talk show host Dan Caplis and several conservative bloggers, including me, in calling for McInnis to drop out of the race.
McInnis says he won’t drop out of the governor’s race, but the results of the three polls taken since Tuesday and published today may force him to change his mind.

Republicans lose support; John Hickenlooper 45% v. Scott McInnis 43%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 1:42 pm, July 16, 2010

While likely voters in Colorado are divided 35% yes to 36% no over whether Scott McInnis should drop out of the governor’s race, only a third of likely voters have been following McInnis plagiarism scandal closely, according to a new poll by Rasmussen Reports. The Denver Post broke the scandal Tuesday, only a few days before the survey was conducted.
This shows that Colorado’s voters still are evaluating McInnis’ plagiarism and integrity and the growing concerns about whether Dan Maes is fit to be governor. As more voters tune into the story, McInnis and Maes are likely to lose even more support. The Denver Post, Grand Junction Sentinel, Fort Collins Coloradan, Dan Caplis and several bloggers are calling on McInnis to drop out of the race. Several also want Maes to drop out, Including the Post, which says he’s unfit to be governor.
Already, McInnis and Maes are down in the new Rasmussen Reports poll from a month ago. And their very unfavorable ratings are up from a month ago, signalling that the trends in polling aren’t the friends of McInnis nor Maes.
Rasmussen found in a survey this week of 750 likely voters that John Hickenlooper leads McInnis 45% to 43% and Maes 46% to 43%.
Other key findings by the highly regarded Rasmussen Reports:
Another potentially troubling sign for McInnis is that just nine percent (9%) of voters now have a Very Favorable opinion of him. That figure is down seven points from a month ago. At the same time, his negative ratings are rising. His Very Unfavorables are now at 24%, an increase of 10 points over the past month.
Hickenlooper, the Democratic candidate, is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 22%.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Voters are evenly divided at this point over whether McInnis should quit the gubernatorial race: 35% say yes, and 36% say no. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are not sure. But only one-in-three voters say they are following the plagiarism story Very Closely so far.
Among voters who are closely following the story, 54% say McInnis should quit the race.
The relatively small number of people following the story at this time suggests that the impact could grow unless McInnis is able to address it positively in some manner.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of Democrats think McInnis should drop out of the race, but 52% of Republicans disagree. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.
Businessman Dan Maes, the other Republican already in the race, now trails Hickenlooper 46% to 43%. Last month, the two men were tied at 41% apiece.
Nine percent (9%) also have a Very favorable opinion of Maes, while 12% view him Very Unfavorably.
 

Ken Buck 46%, Michael Bennet 41%; Jane Norton 47%, Bennet 40%

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 10:49 am, July 13, 2010

Ken Buck leads appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet 46% to 41%, and Jane Norton leads Bennet 47% to 40%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Buck leads Andrew Romanoff 47% to 42% and Norton leads Romanoff 44% to 42%. Romanoff looks to be a stronger candidate than Bennet while Buck and Norton appear to be tied even though polls that pit them directly against each other show Buck leading Norton by 10 to 16 percentage points.
Impact graphs from Rasmussen Reports:
Colorado voters are more pessimistic about the economy than voters nationwide. Just seven percent (7%) rate the economy as good or excellent, while 56% say it’s poor.
Sixty-two percent (62%) favor repeal of the national health care bill, which Bennet supported as a member of the Senate, while 35% oppose repeal. This is much higher support for repeal than is found nationally and includes 54% who Strongly Favor repeal and 30% who Strongly Oppose it.
Both Republicans earn roughly 70% or more of the vote from the larger group who Strongly Favor repeal, while the Democrats pick up around 85% support from those who are Strongly Opposed to repeal.
Thirty-one percent (31%) of Colorado voters agree with the U.S. Justice Department decision to challenge Arizona’s new immigration law in federal court. Sixty-one percent (61%) disagree with that challenge, five points higher than opposition nationally.
More than 80% of voters who agree with the Justice Department challenge support Bennet and Romanoff. Norton and Buck carry about 70% of the vote of those who disagree with the challenge.
Bennet, the former superintendent of the Denver schools, is viewed Very Favorably by 18% and Very Unfavorably by 30%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Romanoff, while 18% regard him Very Unfavorably.
For Buck, Very Favorables total 11% and Very Unfavorables 14%.
Nineteen percent (19%) share a Very Favorable view of Norton, but 22% see her Very Unfavorably.
LINKs:
Colorado Senate: GOP hopefuls remain slightly ahead. Rasmussen Reports.

Will mail ballots help Jane Norton, Ken Buck, Scott McInnis or Dan Maes?

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 9:36 am, June 26, 2010

Jane Norton’s campaign is claiming that she will benefit from most Colorado counties’ use of mail ballots for the Aug. 10 GOP primary. Ken Buck’s campaign is mocking the idea. How could mail ballots help or hurt Norton, Buck, Scott McInnis, Dan Maes or other candidates?
Mail ballots make it easier to commit election fraud because precinct workers can offer to mail ballots for voters and, in some cases, mark the ballots for their candidates. Fraud has been a long-time problem with mailed absentee ballots. This probably won’t be a big problem in the Republican primary, however. It could be a bigger problem in the Democratic Party’s primary where nursing home and inner city election fraud and illegal voting by non citizens and felons may be more likely.
Mail ballots encourage voting because voters don’t have to go to the polls. But mail ballots require postage, which turns some voters off. Procrastinators often don’t vote. It’s hard to predict how these factors will affect the total voter turnout even though advocates of mail ballots claim that more people vote when they can use mail ballots than when they have to go to the polls.
Mail ballots dramatically change election dynamics. Instead of rallying precinct workers on election day, candidates must figure out how to get people to mail their ballots over two or three weeks. Does this give candidates with large direct mail and TV ad budgets an edge over candidates who depend on volunteers to help them get their votes out? Does this make direct mail relatively more effective for candidates than TV and radio advertising? Are people who read their junk mail more likely to mail in their ballots than those who don’t? Are people who are readers more likely to mail in their ballots?
A lot of people use mail ballots to vote early, which is a huge mistake because new information about the candidates could change how you want to vote after you’ve mailed in your ballot. Can better financed candidates take advantage of this timing issue by focusing on early or late voters? Or does mail voting reduce the effectiveness of the last minute, pre-election day dirty trick?
Is Norton’s claim that mail ballots allow more voters to participate in the election and thereby help her really another way of saying that mail ballots help better financed candidates? If so, will there be a backlash against mail ballots because they favor candidates backed by special interests and billionaire campaign contributors?
How can Norton claim that polls of likely primary voters will be proved wrong by mail balloting? Is Norton saying that people who tell pollsters that they won’t vote in the primaries will change their minds once they get their ballots in the mail? How likely is that? Where’s the historical evidence that that happens when there is mail balloting? Where’s the evidence that it doesn’t? Would enough so-called non votes change their minds to let Norton overcome Buck’s 10- to 16-point leads in highly credible polls?
Political candidates have long claimed that they were doing well in their campaigns. Then pollsters started keeping them more honest. But that hasn’t kept candidates from trying to down play unfavorable poll results. They still try to create a sense of momentum in their favor even when credible and highly-regarded polls show that they’re in political trouble. This fools some voters, but more often than not, when a candidate starts denying the reality of recent poll results, it only hurts their credibility. That seems to be Norton’s problem, and her claims that mail ballots will help her don’t make a lot of sense.
But, then, intuition can be wrong, and that’s all we have to play with on this issue.
LINKs:
Norton sees victory in the mail. By David Catanese.

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