COLORADO POLITICS TURNED UPSIDE DOWN: Bill Ritter Dropping Re-Election Bid

by RMR | 11:20 pm, January 5, 2010

As has now been reported by multiple sources, Gov. Bill Ritter is scrapping his campaign for reelection.

The sudden nature of this makes it clear that fundraising was not an issue. Political Wire reports that his campaign staff was sent home in the middle of the day. This should seem obvious, even if Ritter’s fundraising had dropped substansially he still has a large warchest and would be calling the DGA begging for money instead of dropping out.

At this stage, there are really only two logical possibilites given the sudden nature of this. The first is that Ritter is involved in some sort of major political scandal that would make it impossible for him to win against a Republican. The second is that Ritter or an immediate family member is facing a life-threatening medical crisis. Ritter is slated for a press conference tomorrow at 11AM to announce he is dropping his campaign and this should give some hints, if not the reason itself, as to why Ritter is doing this.

Who Might Run?

As we reported in February of last year, Ken Salazar was rumored to be looking at running for Governor in 2014 even as he was beginning his tenure as Secretary of the Interior. This apparent ambition, along with his established fundraising base from his Senatorial campaigns and close proximity to Washington-based Democrats who will be searching for a candidate make Ken Salazar the most likely choice to replace Ritter.

Treasurer Cary Kennedy has faced her own problems in her race for reelection to that office, but still stands as the only Democrat in the state with a state committee with enough to act as seed money. While the amount that would transfer over from her current race would still be dwarfed by Scott McInnis‘ cash-on-hand, she at least wouldn’t be starting from zero and she is on good terms with Democratic donors in the state.

Rep. Ed Perlmutter is being reported by some media outlets as a potential replacement and is a more remote possibility than Kennedy or Salazar. Perlmutter’s main strength is that he is one of a handful of Democrats left who could potentially raise enough cash to challenge McInnis and is not involved in another race.

Who Won’t Run?

Lt. Gov. Barbara O’Brien is unlikely to run for the office in 2010, though if Ritter resigns his office on the spot tomorrow she may serve out the remainder of his term as Governor. O’Brien was rumored to be looking to switch jobs earlier in the year so running for Governor may not be part of her plans.

Who Might Be In Trouble?

Bill Ritter’s departure could also cause problems for Sen. Michael Bennet as he loses his main Democratic ally and advocate. Expect Andrew Romanoff’s insurgent primary challenge to gain some new life amid Ritter’s chaotic departure and his subsequent absense.

Will Low Turnout Doom Colorado Democrats?

by RMR | 9:00 am, December 1, 2009

National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.

Just for fun let’s take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let’s take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)

CD-3 (Adjusted)

Republican 34.7%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1%  (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7%  (27.2%)

CD-4 (Adjusted)

Republican 37.2%  (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6%  (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6%  (22.7%)

CD-7 (Adjusted)

Republican 28%  (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7%  (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7%  (32.1%)

Statewide (Adjusted)

Republican 34.8%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8%  (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4%  (28.6%)

Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..

Both of Perlmutter’s elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.

* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State’s statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.

Election 2009: GOP-Backed Candidates for DougCo School Board Take Early Lead

by RMR | 8:38 pm, November 3, 2009

The Republican Party backed slate of candidates for the Douglas County School Board have taken an early lead and will likely win barring a massive turnaround for their opponents.

John Carson, Dan Gerken, Doug Benevento, and Meghann Silverthorn are all leading in their respective races.

Election 2009: Charter School Supporter Wins Denver Race

by RMR | 8:23 pm, November 3, 2009

Initial returns from Denver indicate that charter school proponent Mary Seawall is on track to crush union-backed candidate Christopher Scott by at least a 2-1 margin in the Denver Public Schools board at-large race.

Initiative 300, a proposal to increase penalties for driving without a license, appears to be headed for defeat by a similar margin.

Election 2009: Exit Polls Show Obama Not As Helpful As He Thought

by RMR | 6:51 pm, November 3, 2009

Barack Obama made a number of trips to Virginia and New Jersey to help out Democratic gov. candidates Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine, but exit polling of the races out tonight shows that Obama’s trips were a wash with voters in deep-blue New Jersey and may have actually motivated the opposition more in Virginia. The National Journal reports:

A majority of voters in both states said, for the most part, that Pres. Obama wasn’t a factor in their vote. In NJ, 60% said Obama’s support of Corzine didn’t play a role either way, which 55% of VA voters said they didn’t consider Obama’s embrace of state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) when deciding how to vote.

Of voters who said Obama’s support did play a role, 19% of NJ voters said they were voting to support Obama, while 20% said they were voting to oppose him. In VA, 18% were seeking to support Obama while 24% voted as an expression of opposition to Obama.

Announcing the Red Dawn Project

by RMR | 7:00 am, November 3, 2009

The Red Dawn Project is a new initiative to help promote viable, conservative challengers seeking offices currently held by Democrats in Colorado. Candidates will automatically be added as they fulfill basic criteria of holding fiscally conservative views, raising enough funds to demonstrate they are capable of mounting an actual challenge, and refusing to mount a negative campaign (specifically smearing other Republicans or launching "purges"). In other words, these are candidates that the center-right coalition can feel good about supporting and are not placeholder candidates or tilting at windmills.

In coming weeks we will be running profiles on candidates targeted by the program. In addition, posts from site administrators pertaining to the races being targeted will have fundraising widgets promoting the candidates. These are the candidates who will need your help and stand the best chance of turning back Democratic control of the state. Here are the initial eight Republican challengers meeting the criteria:

J.J. Ament (Treasurer)
Ken Buck (U.S. Senate)
Ryan Frazier (CD-7)
Cory Gardner (CD-4)
Scott McInnis (Governor)
Josh Penry (Governor)
Ellen Roberts (State Senate District 6)
Walker Stapleton (Treasurer)

While only one legislative candidate made the cut this time, most promising challengers in Democratic districts have only filed in the last few months. Many of them will be added to the list in January as they demonstrate their ability to mount an effective campaign. Several statewide candidates do not qualify at this time but will probably be added at the time as well.

Understandably, some people may feel slighted if their favored candidate fell below the fundraising threshold. Sorry folks, but the cut-offs we’re using from here on out (you can view them here) actually fall far below what they’ll need to actually unseat an incumbent Democrat. If your candidate cannot reach that point yet, especially if they have been in the race for the better part of a year, they have no chance of winning the general election. Like it or not: that’s a harsh reality that will have to be confronted at some point. Finally, the goals only increase incrementally each quarter so a serious candidate just entering the race or a legislative candidate entering late should have little problem meeting them.

Why the "Red Dawn" Project?

The 1984 film Red Dawn depicted a small group of Colorado teenagers fighting to repel a Soviet invasion. The Red Dawn Project slate of candidates are fighting to repel a Democratic invasion from the state. In keeping with the theme, when the tiered system of ranking candidates is implemented in 2010 the top-tier candidates will be dubbed "Wolverines."

The Denver Ballot

by RMR | 3:11 am, October 20, 2009

If you live in Denver, you will be receiving your mail-in ballot soon if you have not already. The ballot in this off-year is sparse but offers some clear-cut choices.

All Denver voters will be choosing an at-large member for the Denver Public Schools board. One of the candidates, union-backed Christopher Scott, is a vehement opponent of charter schools as the Colorado Charter Schools blog spells out:

Both of these existing charter schools have been approved to replicate their existing programs in other parts of the district. Clearly, everyone in Denver sees the benefit of having independently-operated, successful charter schools. Right?

Not according to at-large Board of Education candidate, Christopher Scott, who seems to liken public charter schools to the plague. Forget that parents are flocking to these schools across the state with more than an estimated 35,000 on waiting lists for the more than 160 charter schools operating this school year.

One could think that Mr. Scott doesn’t like public charter schools because he’s aligned with the teacher’s union, but in Denver the teacher’s union has started an innovation school called Math and Science Leadership Academy.

This race is hardly partisan, with Mayor John Hickenlooper backing Scott’s opponent Mary Seawell.

The other major issue on the ballot that all Denver voters will have to decide on is Initiative 300, a bone-headed move to "fight illegal immigration" by impounding your car if you forget your driver’s license and opening you up to extensive fines. Initiative 300 is intended "give teeth" to a weaker version of the law already on the books that has been most notable so far for forcing a Iraq War veteran who forgot to renew his license to pay $4,000 in fines. From KDVR:

Brian Furman spent the past 13 months on dangerous duty in Iraq. He just got back, stationed at Buckley Air base. He says he didn’t realize his Missouri driver’s license had expired while he was in Iraq, until a Denver Police officer pulled him over for a broken headlight.

The officer impounded Furman’s car under a law passed by voters last summer. It allows police to impound a car if the driver is not carrying a license and requires them to pay a $2500 bond plus hefty storage fees in order to get the car back.

Furman argues, he was under a grace period to renew his license and the court dropped all charges. But the city still refuses to release the car. And Furman says they told him unless he comes up with nearly $4000, they are going to sell the car next month.

Christopher Scott and Initiative 300 both deserve a "No" vote.

Penry Sweeps Latest GOP Activist Survey, Prompts Angry Response From McInnis Campaign

by RMR | 8:46 am, September 23, 2009

Josh Penry leapt ahead in the latest detailed survey of 500 GOP activists conducted by Ben DeGrow. This prompted the McInnis campaign to issue a predictably thin-skinned response to the Denver Westword:

"Rasmussen is a heck of a bigger deal than Ben DeGrow," Duffy says, adding that internal numbers he can’t make public at this point reveal "that we’re way ahead." Besides, the positive Penry numbers hardly "came down from Mt. Sinai carved into tablets."

Of course, Rasmussen didn’t actually poll the primary which makes it an odd point to bring up. There was little accomplished by this latest incident aside from drawing attention to the survey itself, cementing the McInnis campaign’s emerging reputation as hyperventilating at any perceived slight, and agitating the conservative blogosphere (who any candidate will probably want on their side should they get the nomination).

Furthermore, bringing up "internal numbers that he can’t make public" probably isn’t the brightest idea in light of  evidence brought to light earlier this year that suggests McInnis was essentially side-stepping campaign finance laws to conduct polling. Not to mention this gem quoted in the Denver Post article at the time that attempted to explain away his reference to "extensive polling":

"I haven’t paid for polling. I try to go on websites and places like that and take a look at those polls."

 

More “Reichstag Fire” Than “Kristallnacht”?

by RMR | 8:00 am, August 26, 2009

Early yesterday morning; a pair of morons armed with hammers and Marxist bicycles decided to smash out the windows at the Colorado Democratic Party headquarters.

Liberal bloggers breathlessly decried the vandalism as in the same vein as Kristallnacht (because a broken window at a county Dem office is obviously on the same scale as a violent and coordinated attempt to wreck Jewish property and force them out of the German economy):

According to the article, the police have a suspect in custody. redstateblues has a photo of a bizarre anti-reform flyer found at the scene, noting the cognitive dissonance behind adopting Kristallnacht’s violent tactics while invoking the specter of Nazism. 

This hyperventilating came to a quick end after it became apparent that the vandal was, in fact, a leftist who had at one point worked for an SEIU front organization during the 2008 elections. Suddenly the Reichstag Fire looks like a more apt over-the-top Nazi analogy than Kristallnacht.

Oops.

Cary Kennedy can’t even manage her campaign’s finances

by RMR | 8:10 am, July 16, 2009

We recently posted excerpts from Cary Kenendy’s end-of-the-quarter fundraising email which consisted mostly of odd rambling. One line from her email takes on even more significance in light of the paltry $66,000 in fundraising she is reporting for the quarter.

Cary’s trying to hit the $100,000 fundraising mark by midnight June 30, but she can’t do it without your help.

Not only did she fall far short of her own goal, she ended up being outraised 2-1 by the lone GOP candidate Walker Stapleton. Anyone with an ounce of common sense would realize that you shouldn’t raise expectations about your campaign in this manner. This suggests that she and her campaign were doing an awful job keeping track of their finances and had no idea where they were at or they were vastly over-estimating their ability to take in cash. Neither is a quality that is especially desirable in a treasurer.

We’ll leave with you this thought: your state treasurer honestly believed she was going to be able raise around $40,000 in 48 hours by sending out an email that started with "We are not going to let Dick Wadhams bully us around."

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