More clear thinking on Japan’s nuclear reactors

by Rossputin | 11:25 am, March 16, 2011

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/fear-the-media-meltdown-not-the-nuclear-one/?singlepage=true

Overnight market

by Rossputin | 7:16 am, March 16, 2011

I haven’t figured out why yet, but overnight there was a rally in every commodity that I watch.  Oil went from down $1 to up $1.50.  Gold went from flat to up $11.  Silver went from down 10 cents to up 55 cents.  Wheat and soybeans are also up.

One news story suggests the turn in oil is due to unrest in Bahrain and Libya but I’m skeptical because that doesn’t explain the other commodities in any way.

The US Dollar is mixed, so that’s not it.

The S&P futures and Nikkei futures are up very slightly (about 1% in Japan, and just a fraction of a % here) from 10 PM last night, so that’s not it.

My best guess is that people are focusing on the Fed’s report yesterday: the economy is strengthening (very modestly) and they’re probably not going to raise rates anytime soon because they don’t see inflation. Also, they almost certainly will NOT extend QEII beyond its scheduled size and duration.  Putting all that together, it could explain strong commodities and fairly flat stocks.  Of course, markets are going to remain volatile so it wouldn’t surprise me if anything or everything ends the day nowhere near where they’re starting.

Anyway, I hope it’s a quiet morning because I have to take my son to school while the market is open!  I sold some out of the money S&P puts and calls yesterday.  Rather risky play but the volatility struck me as very high and I didn’t sell very many.  At the moment, it looks like a decent morning for my position.

Defending Larry Kudlow

by Rossputin | 4:44 am, March 16, 2011

There was a tempest in a teapot on Monday after Larry Kudlow commented that “The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll and we can be grateful for that.”

What annoyed me most about the story was that it reached my mother who, not being a news junkie and not being any more likely than the average Internet user to fact-check, sent me a clip of the quote along with another sentence that made it sound as if Kudlow had intended the remark the way it sounded.

While I’ve only met Larry in person twice and only been on his show once, I actually consider him a friend and think I understand him at least a little bit.

Here’s what I told my mother about this: “There’s no way Kudlow meant that the way it sounded. Especially given the rough road he’s traveled personally and his deep religious convictions, he would NEVER intentionally suggest that anything economic is more important than human life.”

Seriously, people, just being involved in markets and finance (as I am) doesn’t make one cold and heartless (at least not outside of trading hours).  Larry Kudlow in particular is a guy who, while passionate about his work and deeply ingraied with free-market economics, would never put a dollar before the well-being of a person, including an anonymous stranger in Japan.

Perhaps because I do consider Kudlow a friend, I’m a little more annoyed with this situation than most.  Maybe even more annoyed than Larry who, I’d be willing to bet big money, knows in his heart that he most certainly didn’t intend his words the way they sounded.

I trust that this will come to nothing, though I’m certain there are enough MSNBC-watching idiot leftist trolls (who anticipate never making enough money to have to care about economics and finance anyway since they’ll sponge off the taxes of those of us who do make a living) who will contact CNBC about the incident that Larry mght get pressured to make a public apology for a slip of the tongue.  Knowing Larry, he might want to make that apology anyway even though it’s more than his critics deserve.

Defending Larry Kudlow

by Rossputin | 4:44 am, March 16, 2011

There was a tempest in a teapot on Monday after Larry Kudlow commented that “The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll and we can be grateful for that.”

What annoyed me most about the story was that it reached my mother who, not being a news junkie and not being any more likely than the average Internet user to fact-check, sent me a clip of the quote along with another sentence that made it sound as if Kudlow had intended the remark the way it sounded.

While I’ve only met Larry in person twice and only been on his show once, I actually consider him a friend and think I understand him at least a little bit.

Here’s what I told my mother about this: “There’s no way Kudlow meant that the way it sounded. Especially given the rough road he’s traveled personally and his deep religious convictions, he would NEVER intentionally suggest that anything economic is more important than human life.”

Seriously, people, just being involved in markets and finance (as I am) doesn’t make one cold and heartless (at least not outside of trading hours).  Larry Kudlow in particular is a guy who, while passionate about his work and deeply ingraied with free-market economics, would never put a dollar before the well-being of a person, including an anonymous stranger in Japan.

Perhaps because I do consider Kudlow a friend, I’m a little more annoyed with this situation than most.  Maybe even more annoyed than Larry who, I’d be willing to bet big money, knows in his heart that he most certainly didn’t intend his words the way they sounded.

I trust that this will come to nothing, though I’m certain there are enough MSNBC-watching idiot leftist trolls (who anticipate never making enough money to have to care about economics and finance anyway since they’ll sponge off the taxes of those of us who do make a living) who will contact CNBC about the incident that Larry mght get pressured to make a public apology for a slip of the tongue.  Knowing Larry, he might want to make that apology anyway even though it’s more than his critics deserve.

A scary Groundhog Day evening for Japan

by Rossputin | 9:38 pm, March 15, 2011

I’m glued to my computer monitor, as I was at this time last night, watching a live stream of Japanese news translated into English.

Just before 9:30 PM my time (Mountain), the news announcer said there is a new earthquake warning for northeast Japan, although their stationary cameras are not showing any tremors.

In the last three hours, Nikkei futures have dropped from almost 9100 to about 8800, or from up more than 5% to up 1.7%.  During that same time, US S&P 500 futures have dropped from up about 8 points to down 3 points (they were down more than 5 points a few minutes ago).  Silver, gold, and oil have also all dropped modestly.

During today’s trading session in the US, the market shook off an early loss of more than 30 points, more than 2.5% in the S&P 500, reaching a high of about down 9 points with about an hour to go in the trading day, before selling off to end the day down around 15 points, a bad day but far from a disaster.

The rebound was due in part to an announcement by the Federal Reserve which implied slightly more economic strength than they’ve suggested they had believed existing in recent prior meetings.  That was part of the reason that the yield on the government’s 10-year note rose about 4 basis points from mid-day to the end of the day, ending the day only 2 basis points lower than they had closed on Monday, a very tiny drop for a day of such initial panic.  The message I take from the markets is that unless something additionally terrible happens with the nuclear plants in Japan (or some other major issue like another big earthquake), the US and perhaps the world economies are likely strong enough to push through these events.  To be sure, certain companies and industries will be massively benefited by the necessary rebuilding.  I, for one, would much rather those companies and industries not have those profits.

UPDATE: Slight improvement (about 1%) in the Nikkei and a few points in the S&P as I was typing this.  The markets are extremely volatile and will likely stay that way until risk of a reactor catastrophe seems all but gone.

A Wind-Assisted “Win”

by Joshua Sharf | 8:15 pm, March 15, 2011

In track and field, when a runner has the wind at his back, and records he sets don’t count.  Of course, in track, the win is still fair, because all the runners run under the same conditions.  With the press, it’s always uphill and against the wind for Republicans and Tea Parties, downhill and wind-assisted [...]

Just when you thought he couldn’t be more of an embarrassment

by Rossputin | 8:02 pm, March 15, 2011

H/T Mike R

I don’t know whether the leaders of our unappreciated ally nations are as embarrassed for the USA as Americans who voted for Barack Obama should be, but if I were the Prime Minister of Japan or even more so an ordinary Japanese citizen, I’d be wishing some sort of curse on Barack Obama, preferably one that inhibits his golf game and forces him to actually do his damn job.

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2011/03/15/president-obamas-trivial-pursuits-2/

Obama’s moment of truth

by David Kopel | 6:17 pm, March 15, 2011

(David Kopel) Outstanding essay on the disaster in Libya and President Obama’s failure to act, by Larry Diamond in The New Republic. Diamond mainly discusses the consequences for the Libyan people, but I think that the harm will be global. Barack Obama’s America is showing itself to be a paper tiger; and every one of America’s enemies, especially the [...]

Getting Over the Past, Looking to the (School Choice and Innovation) Future

by Eddie | 1:01 pm, March 15, 2011

Today I’m trying not to think about the past and focusing instead on the future. By the past, I’m referring to yesterday’s vote in Colorado’s House Education Committee that killed the “Parent Trigger” bill (aka HB 1270). This blogger Victor from the Education Action Group says the “education establishment won their fight.” Disappointed only begins [...]

Why Obamacare mandate penalty can’t be a tax

by David Kopel | 10:36 am, March 15, 2011

(David Kopel) My recent op-ed in the Orange County Register explains why. In short, the statute says it’s a “penalty,” not a tax, and United States v. Sonzinsky teaches that courts should not speculate that something which Congress calls a “tax” is really a “penalty”–or vice versa. Besides that, it’s not a consitutional tax because: 1. it’s not [...]

‘America Is Not Broke’

by Ari Armstrong | 10:33 am, March 15, 2011

Over at Reason Nick Gillespie reviews the fashionable leftist view that deficit, tax, and spending rates don’t matter.In a recent writing workshop, a participant brought to my attention a New York Times article with the same theme.The Times accuses tho…

Democrats Have a New Enemy: Math

by PerlStalker | 7:30 am, March 15, 2011

Last week, my sister posted a link to Maddow’s Blog wherein the MSNBC commentator included a graphic listing several “tax cuts for the rich” to eliminate instead of a slew of Federal programs that were on the chopping block. Now, if one makes the assum…

Our Embarassing National Debt, Take Two

by Jon Caldara | 7:13 am, March 15, 2011

Ever wonder what our children’s obligation will be when we hit our debt ceiling this year? Take a look at this newly updated video from Mothers Against Debt:

The Denver City Council Wants Your Money

by Joshua Sharf | 6:20 am, March 15, 2011

Well, that shouldn’t be any surprise to anyone living in Denver over the last few years.  But usually they have the decency to pretend that it’s for someone else.  This time, the Denver City Council wants your money for themselves and the office some of them hope to occupy come May. At last night’s City [...]

Flexibility in implementing health care “reform” limited to more authoritarian control

by Brian Schwartz | 5:30 am, March 15, 2011

“HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius has written that ObamaCare gives states “incredible freedom” to implement the law. We now know what she meant: states are free to coerce their residents even more than ObamaCare requires. What’s incredible is that she calls that freedom.” – Michael Cannon, Cato Institute

Clear thinking on nuclear reactors and Japan

by Rossputin | 4:34 am, March 15, 2011

MIT scientist Dr. Josef Oehmen has written a clear, cool-headed, plain English description of nuclear reactors and their potential problems.

It’s a must-read for anyone who wants to understand news reports and the occasional over-hyping of events at the Fukushima reactors in Japan (which is not to say that the events there are not very serious):

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

Repeal the federal gas tax, regardless of oil prices

by Brian T. Schwartz | 11:32 pm, March 14, 2011

The sharp increase in oil prices does not bode well for our finances. It’s not just higher gasoline prices. Spikes in oil prices are correlated with recessions. “All but one of the 11 postwar recessions were associated with an increase … Continue reading →

New MAD Video: Debt Ceiling

by Ben DeGrow | 4:10 pm, March 14, 2011

Mothers Against Debt (MAD) has launched a powerful video update about the crushing load of national debt we already face and the danger behind plans to raise the debt ceiling: Don’t crush the baby! As a dad of two (and soon to be three) young girls, the message hits home with me. Fiscal responsibility and [...]

MultipLIAR

by Jon Caldara | 3:51 pm, March 14, 2011

Bureaucrats, politicians, tax and spenders, and big government sympathizers all want a bigger chunk of our money. One way to convince us to part ways with more of our money is to argue for a big “multiplier effect.” What this means is that the tax and spender goes to a poorly trained economist and gets [...]

Falcon 49 Parents, Teachers, District Leaders Convene Around Innovation

by Eddie | 2:09 pm, March 14, 2011

Has it really been a whole month since I wrote about the Falcon 49 innovation plan — not to mention the Cookie Monster? Time flies. Next thing you know, I’ll blink and turn 6.
Anyway, over the weekend, we saw one of the first promising signs that the district’s innovative reform is gaining traction. The Colorado [...]

Clash Warfare

by Rossputin | 7:28 am, March 14, 2011

Are “nationalism” and a fervent quest for “dignity” motivating the revolts across the Arab world? New York Times columnist David Brooks thinks so, suggesting that current turmoil across North Africa and the Middle East disproves the late Samuel Huntington’s thesis of a “Clash of Civilizations.”

In his seminal 1993 article, Huntington argued that Muslims generally and Arabs specifically are motivated by religion rather than nationalism, that they do – and we should – view their relationship with the West as much more than competition; it is a conflict (whether or not bullets are flying at any given time) that persistently joins the Islamic world, including our superficial allies, against the U.S. and the West.

Brooks, however, clicks his intellectual heels together hoping to be magically transported to the land of “can’t we all just get along,” arguing that “underneath cultural differences there are these universal aspirations for dignity, for political systems that listen to, respond to and respect the will of the people” and that the various revolts are evidence of “a universal hunger for liberty.”

Please read the entirety of my article for the American Spectator at:
http://spectator.org/archives/2011/03/14/clash-warfare

Backbone Radio, March 13, 2011 Update: A primer on nuclear reactors

by Rossputin | 11:45 am, March 13, 2011

UPDATE: At 7 PM (Mountain DAYLIGHT Time) this evening, Backbone Radio will be joined on the phone by Dr. Farzad Rahnema, Chairman of the Nuclear and Radiological Engineering and Medical Physics Programs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

A leading expert in reactor physics, Dr. Rahnema will help us tackle some fundamental questions that most news and media outlets aren’t covering in their rush for sensationalism and ratings.

In particular, we’ll try (in the time we have with Dr. Rahnema) to cover questions such as:

1) Some definition of terms that most people are hearing but not understanding
2) Some explanation of what a reactor is and how containment systems work
3) Dr. Rahnema’s best guess as to why what’s happening in Japan is likely or unlikely to pose a serious health or other risk
4) And his take on the media’s approach so far to the nuclear aspects of the devastation in northern Japan.

As always, I hope you’ll listen to the show at 710 AM on your radio dial or online.  (An online “listen live” link can be found near the top left of the Backbone Radio web page at http://backboneradio.net)

Progressivism is not Christian.

by David K. Williams, Jr. | 9:35 am, March 13, 2011

by David K. Williams, Jr.A.One of my adamantly “progressive” Facebook friends recently said opposing universal health care is “unchristian.” It is not an uncommon charge.The accusation, however, shows both a fundamental misunderstanding of economics an…

Backbone Radio, March 13, 2011: World events; Jude Sandvall; Japan and nuclear reactors

by Rossputin | 5:03 am, March 13, 2011

Audio archives for this show:

Segment 1 – Intro; Wisconsin politics
Segment 2 – Muslims behaving badly; Israel and radical Islam
Segment 3 – Jude Sandvall, candidate for Mayor of Aurora
Segment 4 – More with Jude Sandvall; real estate and mortgages
Segment 5 – Dr. Farzad Rahnemi on nuclear reactor physics; the tragedy in Japan
Segment 6 – Impact of Japan events on markets and economies; turmoil in the Middle East

Most importantly, I offer my hopes for as few deaths, and as quick a recovery as possible for the suffering people of Tokyo and northern Japan.  The images of the destruction there defy comprehension.

Please join me and Christoper Sanders on this week’s Backbone Radio for a wide ranging discussion, including the latest on Japan, Wisconsin, Libya, and financial markets.

During the 6 PM hour, we’ll be joined by Jude Sandvall, who is a graduate of the Leadership Program of the Rockies (in the same year I went through the program), and who is running for the position of Mayor of Aurora.  We’ll talk about the issues facing Aurora and Jude’s vision for the city.  We’ll also spend some time getting Jude’s view on residential real estate since that’s currently his area of employment.

At 7 PM (Mountain DAYLIGHT Time) this evening, Backbone Radio will be joined on the phone by Dr. Farzad Rahnema, Chairman of the Nuclear and Radiological Engineering and Medical Physics Programs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

A leading expert in reactor physics, Dr. Rahnema will help us tackle some fundamental questions that most news and media outlets aren’t covering in their rush for sensationalism and ratings.

In particular, we’ll try (in the time we have with Dr. Rahnema) to cover questions such as:

1) Some definition of terms that most people are hearing but not understanding
2) Some explanation of what a reactor is and how containment systems work

Please join us by listening to (and calling in to) this week’s Backbone Radio program from 5 PM to 8 PM on 710 AM KNUS in Denver and 1460 AM KZNT in Colorado Springs.

If you’re not in range of the radio waves, you should be able to listen to the show online by clicking HERE.

I hope you’ll actively participate in the conversation with me: Call the studio at 303 696 1971.

Liberty Looks Globally, March 21st Happy Hour!

by redrocks | 5:37 pm, March 12, 2011

“The Great Androsphinx That Is Middle East Politics”

Up On The Roof, with Christine Burtt

Liberty (Red Rocks) closes out our dynamic 2nd year with our special guest, Christine Burtt. Ms. Burtt will have just returned from Egypt, and will talk with us about the current real world political happenings in the Middle East and boy, oh [...]

Breitbart posts on Huffpo? – NPR Is Collateral Damage in Battle to Brand Tea Party

by Mr. Bob | 5:22 pm, March 11, 2011

#teaparty #tcot #breitbartWant to watch Proggressives blow a gasket? ….he he, just read the comments after Andrew slices and dices the NPR scandal.HUFFPO: The latest James O’Keefe success story against NPR has taken a predictable pattern –panicked p…

Watch Devil’s Advocate Tonight

by Mike Krause | 5:06 pm, March 11, 2011

Hey, cancel that blind date tonight (c’mon, you already know how it ends) and instead watch the Independence Institute’s public affairs TV show Devil’s Advocate at 8:30PM on Colorado Public Television 12. Tonight, host Jon Caldara is joined by Kelly Maher from whosaidyousaid.com and Fox 31 political reporter Eli Stokols for an update on [...]

Flattered by Matthew Tabor After a Great Edublogging Podcast: Check It Out!

by Eddie | 1:11 pm, March 11, 2011

It has been said that flattery will get you nowhere. I don’t know who said that, but it wasn’t a 5-year-old education blogger and his name wasn’t Eddie. My Education Policy Center friend Ben DeGrow hosted a podcast with prolific education blogger and new media entrepreneur Matthew Tabor from Education Debate at Online Schools. After [...]

John Morse and Senate Per Diem

by T.L. James | 11:58 am, March 11, 2011

Colorado Peak Politics is reporting some interesting information about the per diem habits of Senator John Morse (last seen here on PPC making the ghost of Laurence Olivier cringe) One comment we’ve heard from two different reporters is that they don’t have time to fact check Colorado Government Accountability Project’s work, as if that ever [...]

Teaching Citizen Journalism

by T.L. James | 11:15 am, March 11, 2011

Spending the morning at Independence Institute with a group of bloggers and pro-liberty activists from Kyrgyzstan, sharing People’s Press Collective’s citizen journalism experience.

A really interesting collection of bloggers, including th…

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