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Ryan Frazier 40, Ed Perlmutter 39: Liberal CD-7 Incumbent Feels the Heat

by | 5:51 pm, August 27, 2010 | 6 Comments

National Review Online’s Michael Sandoval breaks more news this afternoon by bringing our attention to a new Magellan Strategies poll of my own 7th Congressional District. Bottom line: Republican Ryan Frazier edges out incumbent Ed “Don’t Call Me Pelosi” Perlmutter, 40-39.

Some observations on the survey:

  • The voter sample was 38 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 27 percent Unaffiliated, a reasonable model given expected high GOP voter intensity. If you weight the voting sample in line with actual active voter registrations (which would assume Democrats and independents are as enthused about voting this year as Republicans), Perlmutter still only leads 40-38. In other words, this race is absolutely a statistical tie.
  • The incumbent is in rough shape to be tied with around 40 percent support two months before the election. Unlike the challenger Frazier who has 22-11 favorable-to-unfavorable and 60 percent name recognition, there’s very little room for Perlmutter to go up: 37 favorable, 39 unfavorable and nearly 97 percent name recognition. Expect the Democrat to step up the negative campaign forthwith.
  • Among voters in Perlmutter’s home base of Jefferson County, Frazier maintains a 40-38 edge while outpolling the incumbent 43-36 in his own Arapahoe County backyard. Perlmutter narrowly wins the Democratic-leaning Adams County 41-37.
  • In addition to the fact that 7th CD voters believe the country is on the wrong track by a 65-35 margin, they also substantially disapprove of Obama’s job performance (57-39) and have a strong negative opinion of Nancy Pelosi (61-28). Among CD-7 unaffiliated voters, 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s performance and 68 percent have a negative opinion of Pelosi.

The Denver Post‘s Curtis Hubbard takes note of the poll and remarks:

At a minimum, it’s worth keeping an eye on the 7th Congressional District race to gauge just how much momentum Republicans have this cycle.

To help understand why Frazier has built momentum in this race, check out the campaign’s YouTube page, and watch some of the clips from the recent Arvada Chamber of Commerce (“Arvada CC”) debate.

In the meantime, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for Colorado Pols to update their Big Lie, er, Line.

Category: Colorado Politics, Health Reform, Liberty, PPC
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Comments

  1.   Laura Victoria
      August 27th, 2010 @ 7:00 pm

    Great news, and great analysis, Ben. Glad to see someone else point out that alleged “line” at ColPols. It’s always about three months old it seems. I don’t visit there too often, thankfully.

  2.   Kevin J Jones
      August 29th, 2010 @ 10:27 am

    Is linking Perlmutter to Pelosi an effective tactic? I’m more a political junkie than most, but I can’t get much riled up about whether a Congressman is connected to her. Invoking the opposing party’s House Speaker seems more like a tic of party politicians and activists rather than something that has purchase among the wider voters or even among the base.

  3.   Ben
      August 29th, 2010 @ 2:16 pm

    Except for the fact that Pelosi has near-universal name recognition among self-described likely CD-7 voters, and 61 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her (including 68 percent of unaffiliated voters). Her name recognition is about the same as Obama’s, and her favorability is even lower. Why not point out how closely Perlmutter votes with Pelosi?

  4.   Kevin J Jones
      August 29th, 2010 @ 5:43 pm

    *Everybody* hates Congress in general but tends to have a better view of their own Rep.

    Pelosi’s unfavorability ratings don’t necessarily translate into a dislike for her allies. I would prefer more substance to public debate than guilt-by-association.

    It’s not that your phrasing here was particularly objectionable, it’s just that some candidates and campaigns seem to rely far too much on that kind of rhetoric.

  5.   Kathy
      August 29th, 2010 @ 5:50 pm

    This is great news. I know Ed Perlmutter, and frankly, he is no genius, and has done NOTHING for Colorado in his long tenure.

    I know he is a lightweight, but when I heard him tell the crowd (with their fancy mass-produced signs and huge bus)that according to him, “the 14th Amendment gives equal protection and people denied care and coverage don’t have equal access to health care so the existing system must be unconstitutional…” I almost fell over. That was exactly a year ago today, in fact.

    And about a year ago the Washington Post revealed that Ed has his hand in the Cap & Trade cookie jar.

    “Rep. Ed Perlmutter of Colorado inserted a provision into the recently passed House climate change bill that would drum up business for “green” banks, such as the one he has invested in and his family and a political donor helped found in San Francisco.

    The bill calls on bank regulators to promote green banking and says federal dollars should be used to support energy-efficient home improvements at government-funded housing projects.” (snip)

    Mr. Frazier should use these facts publically. I liked that he ran a clean campaign against his Republican opponent, but now it’s time to let people know what Ed “Your Neighbor” is really all about.

    Oh, and I can’t help it- can I call Dems racist when they oppose Mr. Frazier? Of course they aren’t, but you know what I mean.

  6.   Rocky Germano
      September 2nd, 2010 @ 9:37 pm

    Well, Kathy, I know Ed Permutter and have since 1996. He is an outstanding member of Congress and sits on the powerful Financial Services Committee which is responsible for regulating our dear friends the Banksters.
    The crooks of all crooks in America.
    Ed is partly responsible for bringing in the new VA hospital in Aurora. He is for me a small businessman and has helped people who have asked him to step in and work with the banks that have threatened to foreclose on their homes. He holds Government at the Grocery in all parts of his district to hear the concerns of his district and offer help if he has the power to help. So, I guess, Kathy we are all entitled to our opinions. I’ll be at the polls and cancel your vote for an inexperienced and unreliable candidate. Frazier’s record as councilman shows he has been a “no show” over a third of the time when City Council has met. Who wants a part-time Congressman?

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