Rough morning coming in the stock market

by Rossputin | 7:09 am, August 11, 2010

On the heels of slightly weak data from China and Japan and England, and a huge jump in the US trade deficit, stock index futures are getting slammed this morning, with S&P 500 futures down almost 18 points, or 1.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 145 points.

The dollar is very strong this morning (except against the Yen), particularly against the Euro where it’s up a full two cents against that currency, adding to the stock market weakness.

And the yield on the 10-year note continues to drop to levels not seen since the market panic at the end of 2008 and early 2009, and not ever seen before that.

It’s interesting to see gold up strongly this morning even with a strong dollar.  It’s a sign of market fear, fear of instability and of not knowing where else to park money for safety.  It’s not a good thing (except if you own a lot of gold.)

Other hard commodities are mostly down, with oil down about $1.25 and copper down about 4 cents.  It’s interesting to see copper still well above $3 even with this fear of a modest slowdown in  China, the consumer of all commodities as the world perceives it.

My hunch is that this fear is overblown and that the market is using the Asian news as an excuse to take profits.  I’ll probably sell some out of the money puts and calls this morning if implied volatility in the options goes up substantially, as it probably will.

I didn’t quite understand the sharp positive reaction to the Federal Reserve’s announcement yesterday.  It seemed like everyone focused on their choosing a modest policy route, but didn’t focus on the fact that the so-called “recovery” seems to be slowing down – as I’ve long said it would because of the Obama Administration’s goals for higher taxes and more burdensome regulation and a general tenor of uncertainty.

That said, with almost everyone I know still quite negative on the market, I think the downside is rather limited.  I usually try to look for the market to do what would surprise the most people and I think that’s still an upward move…but even I would be surprised if it happened today.

It’s Maes and Buck!

by Al Maurer | 6:42 am, August 11, 2010

Two close victories for great grassroots candidates! I was up late last night watching the returns and picking up the signs I’d placed at the polling places, so I’ll be writing more tonight. It was a great night for liberty activists in Colorado and I think we’re all just a little tired this morning. Tired [...]

Amendment 63

by Brian Schwartz | 6:30 am, August 11, 2010

Amendment 63 : health care choice not a “PR stunt” Is the Colorado Right to Health Care Choice Initiative a “public relations stunt,” as a political science professor says? No, it’s not.  Should a lawsuit against the mandatory insurance provision of HR 3590 succeed, the Feds will pressure states into enforcing it.  And regardless of [...]

Primary election prediction contest results

by Rossputin | 6:25 am, August 11, 2010

[NOTE: The results below are based on the votes counted during the normal ballot process.  I’ll probably update the numbers and spreadsheet in a couple of weeks when the state has included the numbers from all provisional and military ballots (if I can find that data).  This won’t change the results substantially, I presume.]

Drum roll, please…

OK, the person for whom I must buy the first beer as the most accurage guesser of Tuesday’s primary election results is…

Me!

My total absolute error (the sum of the amount I missed by on the three major races combined) was 6.4%.

In second place was “Segosouth” with a total error of 10.9% and Bill J in a close 3rd with 11.2%.

In terms of guessing just the Republican races, Segosouth was the winner, with honorable mention to Tim B. They each missed just the GOP races by a total about 1.5%. But both guessed Romanoff victories, which ended their chances of winning the overall prediction.  Segosouth was the only player to come within 1% in two different races.

Bringing up the rear, with a total error of 27.2% was Airbus, who should perhaps stick to airplanes and videos rather than prognistication, though we of course appreciate his enthusiasm. 

In each race:

Norton/Buck:  Best guess was by me, Worst guess Robert H.  Segosouth had the 2nd-best guess.
McInnis/Maes: Best guess “JD”, Worst guess Eric W and Chris R.  Three-way tie for 2nd-best guess.
Bennet/Romanoff: Best guess Chris R, Worst guess Airbus.  I had the 2nd-best guess.

Average error in each race:  Norton/Buck 3.96, McInnis/Maes, 3.41, Bennet/Romanoff 7.83

I did have one of the worst guesses on the governor undervote, which doesn’t figure into the above result. In that category, the winner was David Williams, followed closely by Eric W, who missed the actual 4.75% undervote by just under and just over 3%, respectively.

The two tables of data (guesses and errors are below for your perusal.)

I’d enjoy getting together sometime soon with whoever wants to in order to have a pint and talk politics, or perhaps talk about life, the universe, and everything.

 

Norton	197,143	48.42%	Buck	209,967	51.58%
McInnis	191,209	49.31%	Maes	196,560	50.69%
Bennet	183,521	54.21%	Romanoff	155,016	45.79%
Undervote	95.25%

 

ACTUAL	-3.15%	-1.380%	8.42%	95.25%
	Norton	McInnis	Bennet	Gov %
Average Guess	-1.95	0.83	0.66	73.10
Error of Avg	1.203	2.208	-7.765	-22.145
		PREDICTIONS
Players	Norton	McInnis	Bennet	Gov %
Ross K	-2.75	1.35	5.15	60.7
Christopher S	2	2	5	55
Greg B	3	2	-2	88
Airbus	3	-8	-6	35
Brian	0.75	3	4	75
Tim B	-2	-1	-3	75
Brian W	-2	-4	1	80
Chuck M	1	2	1.5	65
Jeremy I	-4.9	1.3	-2.8	86
Segosouth	-4	-2	-1	62.5
Robert H	-11.5	6	2	68
JD	-7	-1.5	-0.5	72
Brian Oc	-8.5	-4.4	-1.2	62.5
Joe H	-5	-3	-1	90
Keith D	2.5	4	-1.5	72
J	-1	-1	-1
Bill J	1.25	1.25	4.25	62.5
Keith O	-11	4	4	62
Julie	-6.2	-2.3	-3	76
Eric W	1	7	5	98
Shawn M	-5	-3	-3	75
Val M	-6	-1	-3
Ben D	-0.8	2.2	1.8	82.5
Megan B	2	5	3	80
Chris R	4	7	7	75
Daniel H	3	2.5	-1
David W	0.7	1.1	2.3	92
Ben L	-5	2.5	-1	83
Angela	2	1	4	68

 

 

		ERRORS
	Norton	McInnis	Bennet	Gov %	TOT w/o Gov
Ross K	0.40	2.73	3.27	34.55	6.40
Christopher S	5.15	3.38	3.42	40.25	11.95
Greg B	6.15	3.38	10.42	7.25	19.95
Airbus	6.15	6.62	14.42	60.25	27.19
Brian	3.90	4.38	4.42	20.25	12.70
Tim B	1.15	0.38	11.42	20.25	12.95
Brian W	1.15	2.62	7.42	15.25	11.19
Chuck M	4.15	3.38	6.92	30.25	14.45
Jeremy I	1.75	2.68	11.22	9.25	15.65
Segosouth	0.85	0.62	9.42	32.75	10.89
Robert H	8.35	7.38	6.42	27.25	22.15
JD	3.85	0.12	8.92	23.25	12.89
Brian Oc	5.35	3.02	9.62	32.75	17.99
Joe H	1.85	1.62	9.42	5.25	12.89
Keith D	5.65	5.38	9.92	23.25	20.95
J	2.15	0.38	9.42		11.95
Bill J	4.40	2.63	4.17	32.75	11.20
Keith O	7.85	5.38	4.42	33.25	17.65
Julie	3.05	0.92	11.42	19.25	15.39
Eric W	4.15	8.38	3.42	2.75	15.95
Shawn M	1.85	1.62	11.42	20.25	14.89
Val M	2.85	0.38	11.42		14.65
Ben D	2.35	3.58	6.62	12.75	12.55
Megan B	5.15	6.38	5.42	15.25	16.95
Chris R	7.15	8.38	1.42	20.25	16.95
Daniel H	6.15	3.88	9.42		19.45
David W	3.85	2.48	6.12	3.25	12.45
Ben L	1.85	3.88	9.42	12.25	15.15
Angela	5.15	2.38	4.42	27.25	11.95

 

Election congrats and thoughts

by Rossputin | 6:11 am, August 11, 2010

Congratulations to last nights winners.  Here are a few, with a few brief thoughts on the coming general election:

Ken Buck, whose campaign grew steadily on me during the race, as did his generally avoiding the persistent negativity which disappointed me from Jane Norton’s campaign.  I also repeat my appreciation of Ken’s taking a position on Afghanistan which was clearly not pandering to the base.  That took some courage.  I was disappointed in Jane’s campaigning with John McCain even if he is a war hero.  McCain 2.o only exists because he had a primary challenge; we’re starting to see Lindsey Graham 2.0 for similar reasons. This race also shows how poisonous it is to be or be perceived as an “insider” in 2010. Had I not voted until the last day, my vote could easily have been different. And I repeat my prior mea culpa: I should not have endorsed anyone in this race; my blogging compatriots who chose that option were wiser than I was.

Regarding election internals, of particular note to me was Buck’s large margin of victory in Pueblo County, which is roughly 39% Hispanic (based on 2008 data.) Buck received over 56% of the vote versus about 44% for Norton. My primary reason for endorsing Jane Norton over Ken Buck (given that I saw them as nearly identical on policy matters before the Afghanistan issue came up) was that I thought Buck would be portrayed by the Democrats as a racist, harming his chances of winning in November.  I still think they’ll try, but given the result in Pueblo as well as his home county, Weld, which also is 27% Hispanic (versus about 20% for the entire state), it seems that Buck has rather strong support among Hispanic citizens.  I’d also suggest that this result has interesting implications for the immigration debate overall, perhaps indicating that it’s not nearly the political winner among Hispanics for Democrats that the Dems hope it will be.  I very much look forward to trying to help Ken beat Michael “Who?” Bennet in November and to that end I made a small contribution to Buck’s campaign last night.

Dan Maes, who showed that unqualified is better than disqualified.  The problems with this result are many, however.  First, Maes can’t win the election; he couldn’t even if Tancredo weren’t in the race.  Second, Maes won’t get out of the race because he has no other job or money and it would hurt his chances of running for something else in the future, though probably not as much as he thinks it would if it were part of a plan that could allow a Republican to win the election (which would include Tancredo cooperation, also not the most likely thing.)  Third, a Maes loss in the general election will be a black eye for the Tea Party movement, making it look like a bunch of political novices who care more about making a point (and sticking with it beyond rationality) rather than winning in one of the most critical elections the state has seen in many years.

Michael “Who?” Bennet.  Great to see you on the ballot in November, Michael.  Nobody I’d rather run against than you.  Can’t wait until everybody sees the video of you voting one way on a bill, seeing Chuck Schumer vote the other way, scurrying over to whisper with him and then returning to change your vote.  Great job, Michael. Really stellar. Can you say “double-digit loser”?

Walker Stapleton:  I figured Stapleton would win the CO Treasurer’s race given his name recognition and connections.  All I can say is that he’d better change his tune about not opposing tax and spending increases if he doesn’t want to be lynched by the Tea Party, rhetorically speaking of course.

Libertarian gubernatorial hopeful Jaimes Brown, about whom I know nothing but who I promise to learn about in a hurry and who will probably get my vote in November.

Ryan Frazier, Republican nominee for the 7th CD going up against unabashed liberal Ed Perlmutter in November.  The “moderate” aspects of Ryan’s candidacy, which annoyed some of the hard-core conservative GOP base, are exactly what make him the best candidate for that particular district.  If anybody can beat Perlmutter, Ryan Frazier can.  And I hope he does.

Other thoughts:

I’m very disappointed that the undervote in the Republican gubernatorial primary was only 5%.  This will give Dan Maes a hint that he has more support than I believe he actually has, and make it all but impossible that he’ll get out of the race.

The high governor’s race participation implies to me that very few Republican voters read (or at least are swayed by) some of the theoretically more influential conservative/libertarian bloggers in the state, including me.  If quite a few of the supposedly biggest Republican bloggers called for people not to vote and only 5% of the GOP electorate heeded that call (and actually, many of those probably reached that conclusion without reading any blog), it shows that we don’t have much pull.  On the other hand, it’s possible that a couple of percentage points could be the difference in some election some day, so I guess we shouldn’t give up.  Given that Maes supporters were much more dogged for their candidate than McInnis supporters were, it’s possible that the call for the undervote, even if heeded by only a couple of percent of voters, threw the race for Maes.  If so, that’s too bad (for the reasons I mentioned above and in prior blog notes.)

There were over 20% more votes cast in the Republican senate primary than the Democrat senate primary, perhaps a fair indication of differing voter enthusiasm between the parties, and something which I expect will actually get even worse for the Democrats going into November given that the less interesting (and much less available to the media) Senate candidate won their primary.  I can’t wait to see the first Buck-Bennet debate; someone will need to bring a mop to clean up what’s left of Michael “Who?” Bennet.

Burning question of the day: Is Andrew Romanoff going to buy another house, and if so does he have any money left from the sale of the last one to use as a down payment?

The liberal bias begins in Senate race

by Rossputin | 11:26 pm, August 10, 2010

Just before hitting the sack for the evening, I happened to notice a Politico.com article about tonight’s elections which included the following:

The race appears destined to become the latest version of a familiar 2010 story: a well-funded, careful Democrat running in a hostile electoral environment, versus a flawed, ideological Republican with the national landscape tilted heavily in his favor.

This, of course, demanded a response, so here was mine, which I submitted as a comment on that site:

Your second paragraph description of Bennet and Buck is some of the most ridiculously biased reporting I’ve ever seen.

Just what about Michael Bennet is less “flawed” or “ideological” than Ken Buck?  Bennet votes exactly the way he’s told to by Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer, namely whatever serves Barack Obama’s interests.  Buck had the courage to take a position on Afghanistan which was not pandering to the GOP base, namely by talking about looking to achieve limited goals with an eye toward getting out.

Furthermore, Bennet is only “careful” because he’s afraid of his own shadow.  He won’t talk to the media because he knows how worthless he’s been for Colorado.

Again, for someone claiming to be a reporter rather than a propagandist, your writing is absolutely reprehensible.

Ken Buck will run against Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 10:35 pm, August 10, 2010

Coloradans are in for an entertaining and nasty Senate contest between Ken Buck and appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet. This will be as much of a contest between conservative and liberal 527 groups that the candidates can’t legally communicate with or control as between Buck and Bennet. While Buck never raised anywhere close to as much money for the primary as Bennet did, the senator had to pour everything he raised into the primary, including a personal loan of about $300,000. So apparently both campaigns will enter the general election pretty broke and highly dependent on secretive outside groups to fund their campaigns.
Although Buck showed in the primary that he’s pretty well organized around the state, Bennet undoubtedly is better organized and staffed and is better prepared for the general election campaign. Buck will have to hustle to get reorganized and ready to take on Bennet.

J.J. Ament Concedes, Walker Stapleton to Face Cary Kennedy for Treasurer

by Ben DeGrow | 10:26 pm, August 10, 2010

On his Facebook page, just a few minutes ago J.J. Ament published a concession to Walker Stapleton in Colorado’s Republican state treasurer primary: … would like to thank the countless volunteers across the state who made this a competitive race and I wish Walker all the best in defeating Cary Kennedy in November. At this [...]

GOP voters can’t decide who they detest the most, Dan Maes or Scott McInnis

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 10:19 pm, August 10, 2010

Colorado’s Republican voters apparently had a hard time deciding which primary candidate they detested the most, Scott “McPlagiarist” McInnis or “Driving” Dan Maes. At the moment, Maes leads by about a half of a percentage point, or a little over 1,800 votes out of almost 358,000 votes with 78% of the state’s precincts reporting. It’s hard to see how McInnis will catch up, and the final result may not be known until tomorrow, if then. There may be a recount.
Regardless of who wins, it is clear that Republicans had a hard time choosing between Maes and McInnis. The Denver Post and other papers and conservative bloggers say both men are unfit to be governor.
If, as seems likely, Maes becomes the GOP nominee, he is very unlikely to quit and make way for a more electable Republican. This means he will lose big to Governor-elect John Hickenlooper and former Republican and Congressman Tom Tancredo. If Maes gets more than 5% of the votes in the general election, he’ll be doing well.

Ryan Frazier Celebrates Primary Victory, Ready to Work to Oust Ed Perlmutter

by Ben DeGrow | 9:50 pm, August 10, 2010

Update: Video and photos added below the fold. ARVADA — Victory was in the air before the party for Republican Colorado 7th Congressional candidate Ryan Frazier could really get underway. He even beat my conservative expectations. With 65 percent of precincts reporting, Frazier has a 65-35 lead and a declared victory over honorable second place [...]

Maes/McInnis Recount????

by Elliot | 9:27 pm, August 10, 2010

Could things in the Governor race possibly be more screwed up?

Photo Of The Day: Welcoming Message For Spanish-Only Voters In Colo. Primary

by Laura Victoria | 5:52 pm, August 10, 2010

The Denver Post captured this  overly-welcoming message for U.S. citizens (or maybe not) too complacent to learn one of the most basic words in English, “here.” In case anyone was concerned that adding “aqui’ ” didn’t make the message clear … Continue reading →

Buck Even With Bennet, Norton Trails in Latest Poll: Likely U.S. Senate Dem Primary Winner Receives High Colo. GOP Crossover Support

by Laura Victoria | 11:41 am, August 10, 2010

In a poll just released this morning,  Republican U.S. Senate contender Ken Buck  polls even given a 3.1% margin of error with likely Democrat primary winner, appointed Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.  The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, shows Bennet … Continue reading →

Of Treasurers & Politics

by Rich Bratten | 10:45 am, August 10, 2010

I was recently asked the question “How is a state treasurer’s job political? Aren’t they bound by law and GAAP?” While I don’t claim to be an expert, here is my “two cents” for an answer. The Colorado State Constitution establishes the elected office of treasurer as part of the Executive branch of our state [...]

Ben DeGrow Talks Union Opt-Out Periods on 850 KOA’s Mike Rosen Show

by Eddie | 9:39 am, August 10, 2010

The dog days of August are here. Most Colorado K-12 schools are gearing up for the 2010-11 year, while a few already are underway. August and September are a very busy time for those who work in our public schools. That’s why it shouldn’t be a surprise that for many teachers it’s the only time [...]

Primary election day prediction game

by Rossputin | 8:59 am, August 10, 2010

[UPDATE, 7:10 PM: The first few returns are trickling in so participation is now closed…]

Here are my predictions for the three major primary races today.

I’d love to hear your predictions. I’ll buy the first beer for whoever puts up his or her guesses and gets closest, in the aggregate, to the actual results. If anybody else wants to propose a very modest wager, please do. I’d enjoy getting together with a few of you sometime after this mess of a primary season is over.

We’ll add up each person’s (absolute value) error in % points for each race, and the one with the lowest total error wins.

Whoever gets closest will get bragging rights as well!

For example, if you say Candidate A by 5 and Candidate B by 2 and Candidate C by 1, and the results are Candidate A by 2.5, Candidate B’s opponent by 2, and Candidate C by 2, then the errors are 2.5, 4, and 1 for a total of 7.5.

I’ll go first; my guess as to the winner and the margin of victory:

Buck by 2.75
McInnis by 1.35
Bennet by 5.15

Bonus tiebreaker question: What percent of the number of ballots cast in the GOP Senate primary will be cast in the GOP gubernatorial primary?

My answer: 60.7%

———-

Update:  Here’s what we have so far, with 29 players.  A positive number means that candidate wins by that amount.  Negative is a prediction that the other candidate wins by that amount.

 

	Norton	McInnis	Bennet	Gov %
Average Guess	-1.98	0.76	0.59	72.90
		PREDICTIONS
Players	Norton	McInnis	Bennet	Gov %
Ross K	-2.75	1.35	5.15	60.7
Christopher S	2	2	5	55
Greg B	3	2	-2	88
Airbus	3	-8	-6	35
Brian	0.75	3	4	75
Tim B	-2	-1	-3	75
Brian W	-2	-4	1	80
Chuck M	1	2	1.5	65
Jeremy I	-4.9	1.3	-2.8	86
Segosouth	-4	-2	-1	62.5
Robert H	-11.5	6	2	68
JD	-7	-1.5	-0.5	72
Brian Oc	-8.5	-4.4	-1.2	62.5
Joe H	-5	-3	-1	90
Keith D	2.5	4	-1.5	72
J	-1	-1	-1
Bill J	1.25	1.25	4.25	62.5
Keith O	-11	4	4	62
Julie	-6.2	-2.3	-3	76
Eric W	1	7	5	98
Shawn M	-5	-3	-3	75
Val M	-6	-1	-3
Ben D	-0.8	2.2	1.8	82.5
Megan B	2	5	3	80
Chris R	4	7	7	75
Daniel H	3	2.5	-1
David W	0.7	1.1	2.3	92
Ben L	-5	2.5	-1	83
Angela	2	1	4	68

Colorado Elections 2010: Primary Results

by T.L. James | 8:00 am, August 10, 2010

This post will be stuck to the top of PPC for the day, as a place to post and discuss the results from Colorado’s 2010 Primary Elections.

Brian Wesbury: Lessons from our neighbors to the north

by Rossputin | 5:30 am, August 10, 2010

Every once in a while, something happens in politics or economics or just daily life which remind me of the clever choice of song by the British Army band when the Brits surrendered at Yorktown in 1781: The World Turned Upside Down  (At least that’s the legend.)

I had such an upside-down moment a couple of months ago when I saw an economic development ad for Ontario, Canada, which talked about their “competitive tax rate.”  In fact, Ontario’s economic development web site points out that “Ontario’s combined federal-provincial corporate tax rate of 28 per cent (as of July 2010) is significantly lower than the US weighted average of 36.1 per cent for manufacturing.”

Really?  Canada is competing with the US as better for business development?  That squishy, slightly leftist frozen country containing French-speaking separatists and kids who ostentatiously sew maple leaf flags on their backpacks while traveling so they’re not confused with Americans?  Yep, that’s the one.  Right across from the hopeless Detroit, the ultimate example of what you get when you put unions and Democrats in charge. (Yes, I realize that’s redundant, but Detroit did it to a remarkable degree of completeness…)  Michigan’s unemployment rate is over 13%; Ontario’s is 8.5%.

My friend Brian Wesbury, perma-optimist and lover of capitalism and free markets, writes an interesting note about the rumored second “stimulus” which Democrats are considering in an effort to buy more votes of public sector union workers and economic illiterates by picking the pockets of the rest of us.  According to Wesbury, a comparison between Canada and the US provides strong evidence of why a second “stimulus” would not just be unhelpful but downright destructive to our nation’s economic health.  (I encourage you all to read Brian’s blog daily HERE and/or sign up for his e-mails HERE.)

It’s still stunning to think that it could be attractive to move to Canada to be in a better business environment…the world has indeed turned upside down under the reign of The One.

Anyway, here are Brian’s words of wisdom:

Monday Morning Outlook

---

Please – No More Stimulus To view this article as a PDF, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA – Senior Economist
Date: 8/9/2010

Colorado Primary Predictions: My Complete, Final (and Wrong?) Guesses

by Ben DeGrow | 10:07 pm, August 9, 2010

We are on the eve of Colorado’s 2010 primary elections. A couple weeks ago I posted my preferences and prognostications. While my ballot choices haven’t changed (I filled them out in ink, after all), but I’d like to issue my complete, revised and final predictions. And yes, I see a lot of close races: U.S. [...]

Why hasn’t Hickenlooper touted Bennet more?

by Kelly Maher | 3:56 pm, August 9, 2010

Interesting question. . . nobody’s asked it as far as I can tell. Maybe there was little to be gained by Hickenlooper, who’s running for governor of Colorado, making a big push in a contested Democratic Senate primary.

NCTQ’s Green Light Indicates Colorado is a Likely Race to the Top Winner

by Eddie | 3:40 pm, August 9, 2010

So now that the Colorado State Board of Education has signed on to Common Core Standards, the question is what are the state’s chances to win up to $175 million in federal funds from Race to the Top (RTTT) Round 2? Thanks to Ed News Colorado’s Daily Churn, I learned that the National Council on [...]

Down to the wire Colorado primary election polling

by Rossputin | 1:13 pm, August 9, 2010

UPDATE:  Based on a question from astute PPC reader Laura V, I asked the polling company if they had asked respondents if they had already voted.  Here’s the response I got, which is quite interesting (and makes me reconsider what I say below about the Bennet/Romanoff race): “About 80% of respondents said they had already mailed in their ballots. Respondents were included whether they had or not and there were no big differences in voting preferences based on whether or not they had already mailed them in.“  This would tend to make the poll results look much more reliable than polling people who have not voted.

(I’m gonna talk about the Dems first here, but just so you’re not in suspense, you’ll see as you read that the poll shows Jane Norton slightly ahead of Ken Buck in the Republican Senate primary.)

Public Policy Polling just released the results of a survey taken on August 7th and 8th of 448 likely Democrat primary voters and 767 likely Republican primary voters in our great (or once-and-future great) state of Colorado.

On the Democrat side, Michael “Who” Bennet leads Andrew “I’m homeless” Romanoff by 6 points, 49% to 43%, with 9% undecided. As I mentioned on Backbone Radio last night, I think that Barack Obama’s appeal to Democrat voters was probably of substantial help to the appointed Senator.

I don’t know Democrat primary voters, but I have to say I was slightly surprised to see Bennet with 57% job approval among them, versus only 24% disapproval.  Romanoff’s popularity numbers weren’t all that different, with 52% favorable and 27% unfavorable.

I think PPP overstates Bennet’s advantage: in the crosstab showing the age of the voters in their survey, it shows that 72% of survey respondents were over 45 years old and only 10% were 18 to 29 years old and only 18% from 30 to 45 years old.  But in 2008, across the nation about 18% of voters were 18 to 29 years old. I don’t know the numbers for 30-45 years old, but I suspect they are also undersampled in this poll. With younger vots leaning left, I think this sampling bias could be significant.  Romanoff’s strongest, and Bennet’s weakest, group is the 30-45 year old voters.  To the extent they are undersampled, the survey overstates Bennet’s position. I also think Romanoff voters are somewhat more enthusiastic than Bennet voters. On balance, I believe PPP’s survey shows a larger edge for Bennet than actually exists.

Therefore, I think Bennet wins the race, but I’d be surprised if he wins by as much as 6%.  My guess is that it ends up more like 3%, and that Obama’s late plea for Bennet made the difference.

Now to the Republicans…

In the Senate race, PPP shows Jane Norton leading Ken Buck by 2 points, 43% to 41%, with 12% undecided.  Norton’s favorable-unfavorable came in at 46%-34%, with Buck doing a little better on that count at 47%-28%.

While some people, including me, have wondered whether Ken Buck’s “I don’t wear high heels” statement would hurt him among women, the PPP crosstab shows Buck and Norton tied at 42% among women with 16% still thinking about it.  Norton polls slightly ahead of Buck among men, 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided.  I have to say I’m skeptical about this.  I do think Norton wins among women and I’m not convinced she wins among men by 3% or more.

Although only 8% of the Republican surveyed sample were Hispanic voters, I found one crosstab particularly interesting:  among that group, Ken Buck beats Jane Norton by 10%.  This is a very small sample.  We’re talking about maybe 60 voters, so a switch of three voters, say from 30-30 to 33-27, moves the needle by 10%.  We’d need to sample many more Hispanics to see if this is a real thing, but the other Hispanic crosstabs show them feeling more unfavorable than favorable about Jane Norton by 9%, but more favorable than unfavorable about Ken Buck by 10%.  Perhaps my fear that the Dems would be able to make gains against Buck among Hispanics in November if he were the nominee is unfounded.

The age range sampling among Republicans seems more reasonable, with 64% over 45 years old, 12% from 18-29 and 24% from 30-45.   Ken seems to win 30-45 year old voters, with Jane winning among the youngest and oldest voters.

My prediction on this race has been changing every day.  And to be clear, I think Jane and Ken are both good people and good candidates, though I have endorsed Mrs. Norton primarily thinking that she will be more likely to win in November.  At this point, I have a feeling that some of Mr. Buck’s minor problems such as “high heels” and “dumbasses” might have occurred at precisely the wrong time for his campaign, i.e. just going into when the ballots were about to arrive.  One would be crazy to have a very strong opinion on who’s going to win this race, but my gut instinct right now is that it’s within 3% either way, probably with Jane Norton coming out on top in a real nail-biter.

In the governor’s race, the poll shows Scott McInnis ahead of Dan Maes by the narrowest of margins at 41% to 40%, with a remarkable 19% undecided.  Maes’ favorable-unfavorable is a respectable 38%-23%, whereas McInnis shows a horrendous negative balance at 36%-40%.  They also polled a few questions about Tom Tancredo, showing him with a favorable-unfavorable of 44%-30%, actually better than I might have expected and boding well for his campaign even though I still think he can’t win the race unless something major changes.

My thoughts about the GOP governor’s primary at this point are this:  who gives a damn?

The only thing I’m really curious about is what percent of the number of votes cast in the Senate primary will be cast in the Governor’s primary.  My guess: 61%, but I hope it’s less.

A couple other interesting notes from the poll, all pointing toward the same thing:

• 41% of Republican respondents disapprove of the direction of the Republican Party with only 35% approving.   (Women approve by 40%-36% but men disapprove by 45%-32%.)
• 78% support the goals of the Tea Party even though only 35% consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement.
• 39% think the Republican party is too liberal, versus only 15% who think it’s too conservative.  35% think it’s about right.

There’s a strong message here:  RINOs are not welcome in Colorado where, according to a Rasmussen survey from just a week ago, 30% of voters consider themselves Tea Partiers.  (This appears to be roughly second highest in the nation.)

Whoever wins the Senate primary on the Republican side needs to keep running as a conservative, (hopefully libertarian-leaning though I don’t really see Norton or Buck with the libertarian streak I’d like), with particular focus on fiscal issues and on the economic future of our children.

Jane Norton 45%, Ken Buck 43%; Michael Bennet 49%, Andrew Romanoff 43%; McInnis, Maes tied

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 12:32 pm, August 9, 2010

Public Policy Polling shows Jane Norton leading Ken Buck in the GOP’s U.S. Senate contest 45% to 43% with 12% undecided. That makes that race a toss-up.
Scott McInnis leads Dan Maes in the GOP’s gubernatorial contest 41% to 40% with 19% undecided. It’s a toss-up.
Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff in the Democrats’ U.S. Senate primary 49% to 43% with 9% undecided.
LINK:
Bennet favored, GOP gov. and sen. primaries up in the air. Public Policy Polling.
h/t Coloradopols

Tom Tancredo radio ad attacks John Hickenlooper’s sanctuary city, sanctuary state

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 12:09 pm, August 9, 2010

Tom Tancredo is running against John Hickenlooper’s sanctuary city. He says that if he has anything to do about it, Hick won’t make Colorado a sanctuary state. LINK: Sanctuary State.
Federalism, states rights and the 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be a major focus of Tancredo’s campaign. He makes his pitch in this radio ad. LINK: 10th Amendment.
Ads are at
http://tancredoforgovernor2010.org/EmailMessage.mp3 and
http://tancredoforgovernor2010.org/Sanctuary%20City%20Spot%208_5_10_Master_Mix.mp3

Quick notes on Jane Norton and Scott McInnis

by Rossputin | 11:21 am, August 9, 2010

During the radio show yesterday evening, I was pretty tough on both Ken Buck and Jane Norton about misstating the other person’s position on immigration, each implausibly saying the other supports amnesty.

I sent each of them a note after the show discussing this and other things.  I wanted to share one thing Jane said to me which I really appreciated, especially considering what’s going on with Democrat candidate for Lt. Governor Joe Garcia who wants to campaign while staying on the state payroll.

Jane mentioned to me: “When I ran for Lt Governor I took a leave of absence without pay from my job as head of the State Health Dept. Didn’t think it was right to run for office on the taxpayer’s dime.”

That’s the sort of stand-up behavior that I hope that Jane brings to the US Senate should she win this very close primary election, and of course I’d hope the same of Ken Buck.

——————

Also, I just have to share this web site with the far-left Progress Now has created to go after Scott McInnis.  I know I shouldn’t pile on a Republican who has suffered a lot for this issue already…but it’s too much fun and he deserves it:
http://mcplagiarist.org

At the site, they want to sell you your very own “McInnis Plagiarism Pen”

I still hope Scott McInnis wins the primary and then gets out of the race in a hurry…

Tea Party activist blogs for Tom Tancredo

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 10:53 am, August 9, 2010

Nancy McKierman blogs at Tea Party Brewing on why she likes Tom Tancredo.

Arapahoe County Republican Mens Club president, Cliff Dodge , will run Tom Tancredo’s campaign

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 8:59 am, August 9, 2010

Gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo this morning announced that his old friend, Cliff Dodge, will run his campaign. Dodge served in the state legislature with Tancredo back in the 1970s and 1980s and was known as one of the four “crazies” along with Tancredo. Bay Buchanan is Tancredo’s campaign manager. She managed his 2008 presidential campaign.
Dodge is the president of the Arapahoe County Republican Mens [and womens] Club. His decision to work for Tancredo is a major defection from the GOP, which is intent on electing the ethically challenged Scott McInnis or Dan Maes governor, depending on which one wins tomorrow’s primary election. The Denver Post and several other papers in Colorado have joined several conservative bloggers in calling both McInnis and Maes unfit to serve as governor.

Dick Wadhams and GOP reportedly won’t ask Scott McInnis or Dan Maes to quit

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 8:41 am, August 9, 2010

Sherry Collins, a member of the Colorado Republican Party central committee and of the vacancy committee, this morning told the Jefferson County Republican Men’s club that “It is my understanding that Dick Wadhams will not ask [Dan Maes or Scott McInnis] to step down.” She said that the vacancy committee will not need to appoint a replacement candidate, because it is unlikely that either McInnis or Maes will quit. I haven’t had a chance to call Wadhams, the chairman of the state GOP party, to confirm this because I’m still at the breakfast. Collins told me that Wadhams announced to the committee two weeks ago that he won’t ask the candidates to quit.
Of course, Wadhams hardly on the best of terms with McInnis. Months ago, Wadhams predicted that McInnis never could win a personality contest in his run for governor. He’s also called McInnis “untrustworthy,” according to Tom Tancredo and talk show host, Peter Boyles.
Wadhams has called Maes a “joke.” And that was before Maes became the laughingstock of Colorado. 
If McInnis or Maes quit, others will convince them to face reality. Wadhams has no clout with these guys.

Tom Tancredo says he could never support Tom Wiens for governor

by Donald E. L. Johnson | 8:26 am, August 9, 2010

Gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo told me this morning that he never could support former state Senator Tom Wiens for governor.
After he spoke to the Jefferson County Republican Men’s club, I asked Tancredo, “Could you ever support Tom Wiens for governor?” He replied, “No.”
That means that if the winner of tomorrow’s GOP gubernatorial primary quits under pressure from the party and its vacancy committee selects Wiens as a replacement candidate, Tancredo won’t drop out to let Wiens go up against Hickenlooper in a two-way race. As a result, Wiens probably wouldn’t run in a hopeless race. He has been mentioned as a possible replacement candidate if either Scott McInnis or Dan Maes wins the the GOP gubernatorial primary and then quits the race because of widespread concerns about their ethical challenges and competency.

Colorado Car Tax “Late Fees” = $31.5M ‘Highway Robbery’ aided and abetted by Colorado Supreme Court

by CTBC Director | 7:47 am, August 9, 2010

Clear The Bench Colorado has alerted Colorado citizens over the last several months to the Colorado General Assembly’s underhanded tactic (Colorado Politics at its worst) of circumventing the TABOR requirement to receive voter approval before imposing or increasing taxes by playing the word game of calling the charges “fees” instead, thanks to a ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court [...]

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