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New Innovative Data Colorado Poll Gives Reason for GOP Optimism

by | 3:40 pm, August 15, 2010 | 4 Comments

Update, 8/19: Interestingly, party identification for the poll fits very closely with what would be expected based on national trends and turnout in the recent primary election: Republican (39%), Democrat (36%), Unaffiliated (25%). Since not all respondents answered every question, the actual percentages for individual questions may vary slightly. Thanks to Jim Pfaff for supplying the information.

A Colorado political survey released late this past week has garnered little attention. The survey (PDF) of 1,091 likely voters was conducted by my friend and Right-leaning political consultant Jim Pfaff of Innovative Data Solutions. Among the interesting top-line findings:

  1. U.S. Senate: Ken Buck leads appointed incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, 49-37
  2. Governor: In the existing 3-way race, Democrat John Hickenlooper pulls down 38 percent, followed by 30 percent for Republican Dan Maes and 19 percent for third-party Tom Tancredo
  3. However… in a hypothetical 2-way matchup, Maes leads Hick 44-42
  4. Interestingly, while voters oppose the idea of replacing Maes by a margin of 43-26, with 31 percent undecide (though the numbers aren’t broken down by party affiliation), Hick fares the worst head-to-head against a hypothetical GOP replacement candidate, 45-39
  5. On a generic ballot ticket for the Colorado state legislature, Republicans outpoll Democrats 50-32 (!) — a finding that if correct and taken advantage of by hard work and smart campaigning translates to new majorities in the state house and state senate
  6. Unsurprisingly, 58 percent declared “jobs and economy” as the “most important issue facing Colorado voters,” followed by “government spending” (16 percent) and “illegal immigration” (15 percent)
  7. 39 percent of respondents self-identified as “conservative” and 7 percent as “Tea Party,” with 31 percent “moderate” and 16 percent “liberal”


While I find the results encouraging, it’s also worthwhile to note that I have yet to see the precise voter registration / party affiliation sample to see how reliably it fits with Colorado’s likely voter turnout in November. Judging by the self-identifying responses on ideology and how they compare with Gallup’s reported national picture, as well as top-line discrepancies with Rasmussen on the governor and Senate races, for now I’ll “conservatively” estimate the Innovative Data poll is about 2 to 5 points too optimistic in the GOP direction.

Still, from what I can see, that means:

  • Ken Buck is leading Michael Bennet in the high single digits
  • If Tom Tancredo dropped out of the race, Dan Maes essentially would be in a dead heat with John Hickenlooper
  • Republicans enjoy nearly a 15-point lead on the generic ballot statewide for legislative seats

Translate: A golden opportunity lies out there for Republicans and conservatives. Even given the state of the governor’s race, all is far from lost and no GOP statewide candidate should be counted out. If GOP candidates for state legislature put in the hard work and heed good advice, new majorities should be coming into town. And we may see a few surprises roll in our direction come Election Day.

But I’d also feel better seeing more data from other polling outfits that substantiate some or all of these observations.

Category: Colorado Politics, Liberty, Michael Bennet, PPC
Tags: >

Comments

  1.   Chris
      August 15th, 2010 @ 7:03 pm

    This is where I think the races will end up, Ben. My guess is that Buck wins by 8 or 9 points, we pick up two of the three contested Congressional seats (Perlmutter and Markey, most likely), and Maes will probably lose in the low single digits (I think Tancredo will fade late). However, Hick will have GOP majorities in the state house and senate to deal with. All said, this year will be very good to the GOP whatever the outcome of the gubernatorial race.

  2.   Brian Wilson
      August 15th, 2010 @ 10:08 pm

    I think the important thing to take away from this is that Maes is nowhere close to being out of this thing. I hope the GOP gets behinds him as they watch his rise in the polls. Get your checkbooks out people.

  3.   Elliot
      August 16th, 2010 @ 6:36 am

    I don’mt think this is where the governor race will end up…given the dynamics in that race, I think if Maes maintains a double digit lead over Tancredo, a lot of Tancredo support will increasingly bleed over to his side.

  4.   Elliot
      August 16th, 2010 @ 6:37 am

    excuse the typos…typing on a cell phone while on an elliptical…

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