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Why did Ken Buck get only 77% of votes to Cleve Tidwell’s 15%?

by | 3:08 pm, May 22, 2010 | 16 Comments

Another big surprise out of the Colorado Republicans' state assembly. Tea Party and social issues candidate, Ken Buck received only 77% of the votes to Clive Tidwell's 15%. And Jane Norton wasn't even on the ballot.  What happened?
Category: Colorado Politics
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Comments

  1.   Harry
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 3:47 pm

    Don:
    Remember all of those Norton and Wiens delegates?
    Most of them have switched over to Buck, but not all of them. I would say of the 23% that did not vote for Buck, perhaps 15% were Norton supporters, perhaps 5% were Wiens supporters, neither of whom thought they could get to 30% to get on the ballot and it turns out they were right.
    My guess is the Wiens does not bother to petition on and that Norton does and she gets the 23% who do not vote for Buck in the primary.
    Your pro-Norton spin is about as pathetic as the great Bennet 40% victory on the Dem side. The difference is Norton’s DC crowd can see a loser coming and her money is going to dry up.

  2.   Alex
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

    Maybe you would know more if you knew his names was CLEVE Tidwell

  3.   Val
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 5:07 pm

    77%! Are you kidding me? How many were in the race?

    The people have spoken.

  4.   Donald Johnson
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 5:21 pm

    Nice spin, Harry.

    I don’t buy it. The polls still show Norton’s stronger than Buck. That could change, but the campaign is just beginning, and anything is possible.

    What you take as pro-Norton spin is my attempt to be realistic about what happened. Denial seldom works.

  5.   Brian Wilson
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 5:29 pm

    Ha ha ha ha ha! Worst. Spin. Ever. The big surprise is how many former Norton supporters switched to Ken Buck.

  6.   Keith Olson
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 7:34 pm

    Donald,
    You are fully aware that 25,000 registered Republicans elected the delegates to the state assembly that was held today. 76% of the delegates voted for Ken Buck. You seem unimpressed by the numbers. My take is the Norton and Wiens loyal delegates (abstained) made up less than 15%. Jane Norton, wisely made the right decision to forego the assembly. Had she attended she would certainly have been prevented from petitioning on. I will give her campaign credit for having excellent and dependable polling staff to forecast the bind she was in. I applaud them for taking the emergency actions necessary to save her campaign.

  7.   Donald Johnson
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 9:02 pm

    Keith,
    Having attended this year’s caucus and many others, I know that the way you become a state delegate is to agree to pay the admission fee and show up. Everyone else in the precinct sits back and says, “Who, me?”

    The delegates represent only themselves. So many primaries have reversed the decisions of the delegates, as you know.

  8.   Griffin
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 11:38 pm

    Keith,

    You do realize that the Caucus turnout was only 2.7% of registered Republicans, right? Only the hardcore (and therefore statistically more likely to be extreme in their ideology) became delegates. From that hardcore of hardcore folks Ken Buck won only 77%? That’s pretty below expectations. Most of Norton’s delegates didn’t show up, because they had no one to support. His competition was Steve Barton and Cleve Tidwell–not exactly tough competition. Buck also sent probably 8-10 mail pieces to the delegates, so it’s not like they just up and decided to support Buck because he’s so great.

    JJ Ament, who had a competitive primary with hundreds of thousands spent against him, got more than Ken Buck did. I’d say the fact that JJ Ament outperformed Buck is beyond damning.

  9.   Brian Wilson
      May 22nd, 2010 @ 11:44 pm

    You know Griffin, any percentage over 50% will get you elected. To get 77% is considered not only a landslide, but a huge landslide. We have yet to see whether the Norton and Wiens people can even get the required number of signatures by the deadline.

  10.   Harry
      May 23rd, 2010 @ 7:44 am

    Guys:
    Right now there is only one candidate on the Republican side, Buck. My guess is that Norton may make it on, but Wiens will not. Even that is somewhat uncertain.
    In the caucuses where Norton was the party annointed candidate over 60% said no to her. Yesterday 100% said no.
    About 40-50% of the vote in the primary is going to be tea party “I don’t want a DC insider picked by the NRSC for me” voters. They are going to choose either Buck or Norton. My guess is Buck.
    I think it will not even be close.

  11.   Keith Olson
      May 23rd, 2010 @ 12:38 pm

    Donald,
    I believe Josh Penry and I are at odds with you on the importance of the assembly process. In October of 2009 Josh Penry made the following comments at a Jeffco forum:

    Penry pledged he would get on the ballot by assembly and wouldn’t petition on if he didn’t make it because he said the ones at the assembly are the core of the party, the volunteers and if you don’t have them on your side then there must be something wrong with you

    http://coloradopoliticalnews.blogspot.com/2009/10/northern-suburban-republican-forum.html

  12.   Bette
      May 24th, 2010 @ 6:05 am

    Does the fact that Donald constantly defends Norton surprise any of of here? Get real Donald. Norton isn’t a candidate yet and yes, Buck did very well in spite of the childish antics of Jane’s campaign staffers at the convention.

  13.   Donald Johnson
      May 24th, 2010 @ 7:09 am

    The caucus and assembly process is anti-democratic. It excludes those who can’t make a caucus at 7 p.m. on a work and school night. And it empowers those who have nothing better to do.

  14.   Harry
      May 24th, 2010 @ 8:33 am

    Donnie Boy:
    I guess democracy feels anti-democratic when you lose.

    When Charlie Black and Mitch McConnell and John McCain and John Cornyn were sitting together over lunch at the Monacle in DC and figuring out who should represent Colorado in the US Senate, that was democracy at its finest?

  15.   Laura Victoria
      May 24th, 2010 @ 2:07 pm

    Once again logic fails Griffin. Ament’s race and Buck’s are not analogous. Ali Hasan ran a negative campaign and if anything, throwing his mommy and daddy’s money in people’s faces to make tv and radio ads designed to appeal to the double-digit IQ crowd, turned off delegates.

    I simply don’t get Don’s logic on this. Some comments fleshed it out a bit, but the piece by itself reads more like a riddle. I came away going, Buck got 77 and Tidwell got 15 = 92. That leaves 8 as protest/Norton/Barton. Ok? So?

    I don’t see the 77 as either a huge win for Buck or a disappointment to him and a win for Norton. Don is certainly correct that the Assembly result can be very different from the result in the general. And like Don, I need to hear a lot more from these candidates before making a decision.

    Wiens dropping out undoubtedly helps Buck. I looked this morning at Buck’s website. It was pretty barren on the issues, beyond the things that are throw aways for the GOP. What about the failed trillion dollar war on drugs? As a DA running for Senate, he shouldn’t be hiding out on that one.

    I hope both Norton and Buck really start getting more specific. Don’s excellent interviews brought out a lot. I hope he gets them in the dock again soon and employs his patented economics cross-examination.

  16.   T.L. James
      May 24th, 2010 @ 9:31 pm

    Or, perhaps, it is a process for those who are interested in being involved and make it a priority to do so. If something is important to you, you’ll make an effort to take part.

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