Betting on whether ObamaCare will pass before July

by Brian Schwartz | 1:30 am, March 8, 2010 | Comments Off

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Summary of arguments against health care “reform” (& for free-market medicine)
For the latest in political machinations:

• Google News search results on “health care bill.”
• Politico’s “Live Pulse: Breaking news from the health care fight”
• Washington Times’ politics section

On to predictions…from Intrade.com:

‘Obamacare’ health care reform (see contract rules*) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010:

The above shows the previous day’s closing price, not the most recent trades.  If anyone has a reference to how accurate InTrade’s prediction markets are, do link them in the comments.

* Here are the contract rules mentioned above:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a healthcare reform bill is passed into law before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if if a healthcare reform bill is not passed into law before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official passage of a healthcare reform bill into law, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

For purposes of this contract a healthcare reform bill is considered one of the following:

- The Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962)
- The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590)
- A bill reconciling the differences between the two bills named above

If any of these bills are passed into law the contract will expire at 100. If none of these three are passed into law the contract will expire at 0.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

I thought I’d read about the InTrade ObamaCare prediction market on EconLog, but could not find it. Then, after writing this post, I read one of John Stossel’s posts from last week, where he mentioned it.

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