Rasmussen: Multi-year low in Democratic Party registration

by Rossputin | 8:35 am, January 5, 2010 | Comments Off

In a poll released Sunday (as part of a series of monthly polls of 15,000 adults), Rasmussen Reports says that

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.

Most of the plunge in Democrat registration is not accruing to the benefit of the GOP, however:

The number of Republicans inched up by a point in December to 34.0%. That’s the highest total for Republicans since December 2007, just before the 2008 presidential campaign season began.

However, the number of Republicans in the country is essentially no different today than it was in November 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president.

The change since Obama’s election is that the number of Democrats has fallen by six percentage points and the number of voters not affiliated with either major party has grown by six. The number of adults not affiliated with either party is currently at 30.6%, up from 24.7% in November 2008.

These results reinforce my often-stated view that the Democrats’ over-reaching is giving the GOP a tremendous opportunity but not guaranteeing them a victory.  The American people still have a bad taste in their mouths about the behavior of the GOP while they had control of all branches of government.  Until the Republicans really give people something to vote for, the main reason they’ll get votes is the realization by voters that one-party rule is more often than not a bad idea, and that Barack Obama must be stopped before he destroys the country.  Yes, those are reasonably powerful motivators, but when it comes to the blocking-and-tackling of politics such as getting people to man phone banks or walk precincts, you really need a motivated base.  While it’s possible to motivate a base by dislike of the other guys (as the Democrats did in large part in 2008), it’s usually not enough.

So while Republican leadership should be pleased to see the Democrats’ numbers dropping, they must not fool themselves into believing that the GOP is suddenly popular again.

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