Blogging/Tweeting Show-Me Institute Blogosphere Conference

by elpresidente | 8:34 am, November 21, 2009

A packed house–100+ in attendance People’s Press Collective heads east to St. Louis to expand the empire of citizen journalist proletariat! Follow on Twitter–http://twitter.com/slapstickpols and scroll for updates Investigative Journalism: –importance of open records requests, be focused in search parameters and willing to negotiate over costs –audits from past years and whether or not things [...]

Government health care cost overruns

by Brian Schwartz | 7:07 am, November 21, 2009

Harry Reid’s Senate health bill up for a procedural vote on Saturday, which could allow it to move forward to debate. (Yet Republicans are pushing to read the whole thing, which could take 34 hours!) In any case, be wary of how this bill will cut the deficit: remember how unreliable predictions of how much [...]

Independence Institute’s 25th Anniversary Banquet

by Ari Armstrong | 4:44 am, November 21, 2009

P. J. O’Rourke offered a perfectly delightful address at the Independence Institute’s 25th Anniversary Banquet, held in Denver on November 19. He mostly blasted leftist policies but saved some of his best lines for Republicans. For example, he said that building a wall between us and Mexico would be a boon to the Mexican ladder industry.

I captured a number of interviews on camera:

Two interesting charities to consider

by Rossputin | 2:59 am, November 21, 2009

Here are two interesting charities I’ve learned about recently.  I’ve contributed a modest sum to the first one:

Heifer International: Among other things, gives food-providing animals to poor people around the world, with the condition that the recipients share the offspring of those animals with other poor people.  (They do quite a few other things…check it out for yourself.)

http://www.heifer.org/

 

Cleaning for a Reason: Provides free professional house cleaning to women undergoing cancer treatment

http://www.cleaningforareason.org/

Public health plan: if it were a basketball game

by Brian Schwartz | 11:04 pm, November 20, 2009

Both the House and Senate care bills include a new government-run health plan.  (See the Wall Street Journal’s comparison.) In June I wrote the following:
Supporters of the “public insurance option,” that is, government-run insurance that competes with commercial insurers sense opposition: People realize it’s unfair competition. You know, like playing basketball against a team of [...]

Memos from inside the fraudulent Al Gore Cult of Global Warming

by David K. Williams, Jr. | 10:28 pm, November 20, 2009

It is hard work defending a cult. Especially when the truth might harm its foundations.

Clear The Bench Colorado Director Matt Arnold appearing at South Weld County breakfast club Saturday morning

by CTBC Director | 7:27 pm, November 20, 2009

Clear The Bench Colorado Director Matt Arnold is appearing as a guest at this Saturday’s (21 Nov) South Weld County Breakfast Club meeting at the Branding Iron restaurant in Fort Lupton at 8AM.
Join Matt at Saturday morning’s meeting to learn more about the Mullarkey Court’s repeated assaults on the Colorado Constitution, the resulting impact to your wallet, the degradation or outright elimination of [...]

Wake Up Early Monday to See Me: Jeffco Republican Men’s Club Speech

by Ben DeGrow | 6:01 pm, November 20, 2009

I am slated as the keynote speaker this coming Monday, 7 AM, at the Jefferson County Republican Men’s Club (follow link and scroll down for information). The topic? “What Do Teachers Unions Negotiate from You?” Find more about my areas of research here.

Friday PM Quick Hits

by Ben DeGrow | 5:53 pm, November 20, 2009

A devastating story for the scaremongering “climate change” religionists breaks today because of illegal hacking activity:

Climate Audit, “Mike’s nature trick”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air, “Do hacked e-mails show global warming fraud?”
Paul Chesser, American Spectator, “Get that hacker a pimp coat”

On a different note, George Will has a great column about the power of states to nullify [...]

Colorado Music Promoter May Challenge Rep. Perlmutter

by Mr. Bob | 2:57 pm, November 20, 2009

Even a Fake District Needs Real Leadership

by Mr. Bob | 12:54 pm, November 20, 2009

#teaparty #stimulus #waste #fraud #abuse Bosse Enters Race for NH 00 District
Priceless;

Has the global warming lie been truly exposed?

by Rossputin | 12:48 pm, November 20, 2009

Thanks to Australia’s Herald Sun for breaking this story.

In a potentially game-changing turn of events regarding “global warming” alarmism and its cap-and-trade policy implications, a hacker got into the computer system of the British University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (“CRU”), one of the leading sources of the climate change hoax, and has made public a large amount of data and e-mail among the usual alarmist suspects.

CRU director Phil Jones has admitted that the data archive, including e-mails, is likely genuine.

The entire 62-megabyte ZIP file is available by clicking (or right-clicking) HERE.
For those of you who are interesting in downloading only the e-mail archive (about 3.4 megabytes, 1073 text files), click or right-click HERE.

One of the most damning e-mails (from file 0942777075.txt if you want to see it yourself) is from Jones to several American climatologists, including bogus-hockey-stick creator Michael Mann:

From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: ray bradley <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>,mann@virginia.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia                     
Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

You got that?  They seem to be repeating a “trick” they used when publishing an alarmist article in Nature magazine to make the data look like whatever they want it to look like and to “hide the decline”.

The Sun Herald article linked above goes through a number of other e-mails.  I haven’t had time to read more of them myself…and I may leave that work to others.

The main thing is that this would appear to be a black day for the cult of Algore and the self-serving “scientists” who, whether in search of greater funding or leftist politics, seem to be part of a large conspiracy of lies.

Maybe one of these guys will turn state’s evidence and explain what’s going on.  In the meantime, if further investigation proves this apparent pattern of lies true, someone should sue each of these men for abuse of public resources since many of them are on a government payroll.

This news needs to be spread far and wide, especially to politicians and regulators who have the desire and authority to tax and regulate us in the name of “global warming”.

Ryan Frazier Touts Endorsements from Wide Range of “Influential Coloradans”

by Ben DeGrow | 10:38 am, November 20, 2009

As Don at Business Word notes, the Ryan Frazier campaign yesterday touted a list of endorsements from “nearly one hundred influential Coloradans” in his bid to be the next Congressman from the 7th District. Yes, the list contains the names of some heavy-hitters — including Phil Anschutz, Pete Coors, Attorney General John Suthers, and former [...]

Who is on the payola list for voting for Govt Healthcare

by Mr. Bob | 10:26 am, November 20, 2009

#tcot #teaparty #obamacare #corruption
Hat tip Malkin

1)MARY LANDRIEU AND LOUISIANA: $100 million via Jonathan Karl:

2)CALIFORNIA: $300 million, via LA Times:

3) AARP

a) Via Philip Klein: $18 million in stimulus money

b) The Medigap royalty/kickback scheme

4) THE ABORTION LOBBY, via LifeNews:

5) Big Labor – Via Houston Chronicle, Goodies for labor tucked away in health bill, More From Mark Mix

This is just a start, since the bill is over 2000 pages, Americans are just discovering what is hidden inside it. Congress has not read it, just their little parts and pages that concern their local areas of pay-offs. In everywhere except the congress of the United States this is illegal and punishable by prison time.

Read More Details at Michelle Malkin

Obama decides not to close GITMO- apparently it’s full of terrorists

by Mr. Bob | 9:20 am, November 20, 2009

#tcot #gwot via Yahoo news hat tip Hot Air blog

President Barack Obama is now confirming what many have long suspected: He will miss his January deadline to close the Guantanamo prison — partly because he cannot persuade other nations to take the detainees.

Prisoners like Walid Abu Hijazi. The 29-year-old Palestinian is nearing his eighth year at Guantanamo even though the U.S. approved his release in February 2008. No one else has been willing to allow him, or dozens of others, into their territory.

This dilemma is one of the chief obstacles to closing the jail, according to lawyers and human rights groups who monitor U.S. detention policy. Most say Washington bears the main blame because it also refuses to accept prisoners on American soil.

“It’s very difficult to persuade third countries to accept the political or security risks involved, especially when the United States has been unwilling to accept that risk itself,” said Matthew Waxman, a professor at Columbia Law School. READ THE REST at Yahoo news

Reid’s Senate Bill: contact your Senator

by Brian Schwartz | 9:00 am, November 20, 2009

The Institute for Health Freedom advises you to contact your Senator today about tomorrow’s vote “on a motion to proceed” on Harry Reid’s health care bill (Sat. Nov 21).  There are many reasons not to like this bill.  The Institute summarizes:
The bill would (among many other provisions):

require nearly every legal resident to buy [...]

Even the Politico slams Obama’s Asian trip

by Rossputin | 5:21 am, November 20, 2009

The Politico, hardly a conservative outlet of political opinion, offers a devastating analysis of Barack Obama’s trip through Asia.

You can read the article for yourself, but here are a couple of highlights:

 

Obama’s minimalist approach was most consequential in China, where he did not meet with Christians, dissidents or bloggers, or directly challenge his hosts for repressive tactics that are again on the rise.

The Chinese in turn rebuffed longstanding U.S. concerns – whether on human rights, Iran or currency policy – in a heavily stage-managed visit where China, not Obama, clearly sought the upper hand.

It’s an approach that carries great risk for Obama – playing straight into his critics’ accusations that his new, more multilateral style isn’t paying dividends, and worse, is making him look weak and ineffectual abroad.

and

But there were substantive problems as well. An early test drive of Obama’s policy of engaging rivals and adversaries around the globe suffered a setback Wednesday, when Iran defied Washington and rejected a United Nations call for the regime to send enriched uranium abroad for processing, which would inhibit the building of nuclear weapons.

David Axelrod’s apologia for Obama’s international subservience and weakness not withstanding, most of the world – and certainly our enemies and competitors – simply had their view of Obama as a paper tiger (or a paper kitten) reinforced by his gutless jaunt through Asia.

 

 

 

 

Pondering financial markets

by Rossputin | 4:05 am, November 20, 2009

There has been a clear (if not perfect) correlation in recent months between the value of the dollar and the price of broad stock market indices, i.e. S&P 500.

In particular, the market goes up when the dollar goes down.  See the chart below of the last few months.  The blue line represents the Euro (actually an ETF that holds Euros) and the red line represents the S&P 500.

While this phenomenon is easily explained on the surface, I can’t help but wonder if the stock market is making a mistake.

The reason that this correlation makes sense is that to the extent that companies in the stock averages are exporters, a weaker dollar increases their earnings in dollar terms.

For example, let’s say company XYZ sells widgets, including selling some widgets to customers in Europe.  Let’s assume a widget is priced at $1 and let’s assume the Euro is worth $1.40 at the beginning of the year.  This means a widget costs a European .714 Euro-cents.  Now let’s say the Euro goes to $1.50.  A widget now costs only .667 Euro-cents, representing about a 6.7% price drop from the point of view of the European buyer.  This means that the the European buyer can either buy about 7% more widgets from the company while only spending the same amount of money (but that assumes that the European needs more widgets, which is a questionable proposition during a weak economy.) So, more likely, it means that the American widget manufacturer can raise prices to that European customer, charging as much as $1.07 before it actually appears as a price increase in Euro terms.  Of course, higher selling prices means higher earnings (assuming the widget maker’s inputs aren’t also all imported which would offset the higher selling prices) which then translate into higher stock prices.

That all makes sense.  And some of our stock market’s biggest companies are huge exporters, including oil and pharmaceutical firms.

Here’s what I wonder in a longer-term sense:  What does the decline of the dollar represent?  Might it represent that the nation is on an economic and fiscal path which will do more damage to corporate earnings (and therefore stock prices) than they can incrementally earn through a weaker currency?

Here’s one possible path to trouble…not one I’m necessarily predicting, but one that’s certainly reasonable: Foreigners who typically buy our government bonds will get so tired of losing money in the currency that they will back off from buying more bonds. Americans won’t have enough savings or desire for those bonds to fully replace those foreigners, meaning that the price of the bonds will have to fall, and interest rates rise, to whatever level will bring in enough American and foreign buyers to soak up the massive debt which our government is currently generating.  As interest rates rise, the cost to business of financing ongoing operations rises, decreasing earnings. Also, as interest rates rise, bonds become a more interesting investment in comparison to stocks. Both of these effects could (and often have in the past) caused stock prices to decline.

Here’s another potential pitfall:  If the widget maker can sell widgets to Europeans for $1.07 that he used to sell at $1, he will raise prices at least somewhat in the US, not just overseas.  And while that bodes well for that particular company’s earnings, it is an example of how a weak currency is an inflationary force.  If inflation perks up in America, something many economists are predicting, the Fed will be forced to raise short-term interest rates. (Indeed, a few economists are saying the Fed should already be raising rates because their policy is far too loose, and seems in disturbing ways to be a repeat of what many view to be Alan Greenspan’s error of keeping rates too low for too long and contributing to the real estate bubble.)  And if short-term rates rise, you can and often do get the same negative effects on stock prices that I described in the prior paragraph.

Since commodities tend to correlate (inversely) with the value of the dollar, you can see a similar correlation between, for example, the price of silver and the price of the S&P.  Yet some would suggest that rising commodity prices also signal inflation – really the same effect I just described.

The other side of the inflation coin, however, is the current yield on government notes and bonds.  The yield on the 10-year note, as I write this, is about 3.33.  While this is up from the panic lows of the stock market crash this past winter, it is close to its low interest rate since the stock market stabilized and rallied.  These low rates could imply that the bond market (which is usually one of the “smarter” markets) does not believe either that demand for government bonds will soon dissipate or that inflation will soon be a problem.  On the other hand, confidence in lack of inflation can also be rationally read as confidence in lack of a strong economy.  If the bond market is signaling a weak economy or “double-dip” recession, then stocks are over-priced.

So far this year, the stock market has done better than I (and most other so-called financial “professionals”) expected.  (I didn’t really bet on my prediction, so being wrong about the top hasn’t cost me money…and I do give myself some credit for saying way in advance that the bottom would be about 6,500 in the Dow.)  In any case, I know better than to think I’m bigger or smarter than the market on a day-to-day basis.  A big ego is a sure way to the poorhouse in my business.

In my view, it is possible for the stock market and the bond and currency markets to all be “right”, but it would take a remarkably tight economic path with little major change in the fundamental economic situation from here.  While that could happen, it seems to me that we’re in far too dynamic and uncertain a time to feel confident that we will thread that needle.  I think the chances are higher that one or more of these markets will within a year be shown to be “wrong”.  My inclination would be to sell both bonds and stocks, but betting on direction is an extremely difficult game, at least for most people who don’t have a lot of experience with or inexpensive access to options trading.  And there’s no doubt that people who have shorted the market all year on the basis of believing the economy is weak (which it is) and that it will remain weak (which the market is saying is far from obvious have had their heads handed to them.

What does all that mean?  It means that I’m as confused as you are, and maybe as confused as the markets are.

Happy trading.

p.s. My fictional attorney insists that I point out that I am NOT giving you investment advice, that all this is my opinion, and that your trading decisions are your responsibility, not mine.

HR 3962: Will health care bill criminalizes affordable insurance

by Brian Schwartz | 1:30 am, November 20, 2009

Dr. Paul Hsieh has a great article in the Washington Examiner about HR 3962 and mandatory health insurance. It begins:
Suppose the mafia came to your town and forced everyone to purchase all their meals at mob-approved restaurants. The mafia would also select the menu items.
If you liked broccoli but their vegetable choice was spinach, then [...]

Standing Up to Supreme Power Grabs – Clearing the Bench of Activist ‘Justices’ on the Colorado Supreme Court

by CTBC Director | 5:05 pm, November 19, 2009

(Note: this article was originally written for, and published by, the monthly ”A Line Of Sight“  news/commentary newsletter which appeared on Tuesday, 17 November)
Last month’s A Line of Sight profiled Mark Hillman’s excellent article describing the Colorado Supreme Court’s latest “power grab”.
In an audacious power grab, the Colorado Supreme Court recently embraced, by a 4-3 decision, [...]

Celebrating the Independence Institute’s Silver Anniversary This Evening

by Ben DeGrow | 4:35 pm, November 19, 2009

This evening the Independence Institute celebrates its 25th anniversary with a sold-out Founders’ Night dinner featuring keynote speaker P.J. O’Rourke. It should be a good family reunion of sorts. Count me as one of the crazy, freedom-fighting cousins.
No one in the area is better at leveraging the media spotlight than my boss Jon Caldara. Witness [...]

Someone Doesn’t Like Senator Mark Udall’s Autoreply Form Letters

by Ben DeGrow | 4:19 pm, November 19, 2009

This was forwarded to me a little while ago. Someone named Kathy from Evergreen apparently (and doubtless with good reason) is not happy with the responsiveness of Congress to her concerns about Obama Care and a rapidly growing and spending federal government.
She took a mechanical form letter from Colorado Democrat U.S. Senator Mark Udall’s [...]

Listen to Colorado Loses’ Podcast Update: AFSCME’s Mass Mail Screwup

by Ben DeGrow | 3:53 pm, November 19, 2009

Last Saturday I reported that thousands of Colorado state employees who never signed up to join a union were barraged with membership cards from the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) — one of the union partners in the “Colorado WINS” coalition brought to life by Governor Bill Ritter’s 2007 executive order. [...]

Good News Friday – Prager

by Mr. Bob | 2:56 pm, November 19, 2009

#tcot #redco #teaparty #liberal #conservative
Dennis Prager brings a ray of sunshine in the window while most conservatives are preaching a depressing outlook. I agree with his optimism here, I think there are enough smart people in this country that IF..IF …IF they are paying attention this may be the last hurrah for the lefties for a very long time. I believe the left has that fear too, which is why they are attempting to pass every left wing agenda item in their Marx inspired playbook right now.

There may be a major silver lining for conservatives and for America’s future thanks to the foreign and domestic policies of President Obama and the Democrat-controlled House and Senate: For the first time in their lives, millions of Americans are coming to understand the left.

It is difficult to overstate how important this is. For decades, the left has largely controlled the news media, the arts, the universities and the entertainment media. And vast numbers of Americans have imbibed these leftist messages and the leftist critiques of conservatives. What these Americans have never been able to do is to see what the left would actually do if in power.

Of course, all one had to do was look at California and see how a left-wing legislature brought the country’s largest state economy to near insolvency and bankruptcy, chased away many of its most productive citizens, and wasted tens of billions of dollars thanks in large measure to union domination of the state’s politics.

But most Americans do not observe other states. Most Americans are preoccupied with their lives READ THE REST

Environmentalist Clowns

by Ari Armstrong | 1:39 pm, November 19, 2009

As environmentalists dressed as clowns protested coal-fired electric plants in Denver — see the reports from the Denver Daily News and Denver Post — Keith Lockitch prepared to give a talk at the Auraria campus that evening explaining the profound human need for industrial energy. (More on this soon.)

In the Q&A, Lockitch pointed to two quotes from environmentalists indicating that they don’t want cheap, abundant energy, even if it is “clean” and “renewable.”

Paul Ehrlich said, “Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”

Amory Lovins said, “If you ask me, it’d be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy because of what we would do with it.”

Blind faith in the Cult of the State

by David K. Williams, Jr. | 7:42 am, November 19, 2009

From today’s Denver Post:

No sunshine in Colorado’s Future

by Amy Oliver | 7:26 am, November 19, 2009

Colorado’s Future, a group that wants to make the citizen’s initiative process more difficult, will be hosting a meeting in Greeley on December 1.  According to Chairman Bob Tointon, some 500 community leaders and elected officials from the Greeley area have been invited to participate in the 3 hour meeting, which he hopes will lead to [...]

More Democrat “reform” garbage

by Rossputin | 4:23 am, November 19, 2009

I’m going to keep this short…there will be a lot of time to dissect the Democrats’ lies over the next two months.

Yesterday, Harry Reid presented “The Senate Bill” which, if it gets through a cloture vote, will soon be replaced by some other unknown bill.

Just a few of thoughts:

The Senate bill actually puts off most health insurance “reforms” until 2014, which is how they make it appear to help the deficit.  It’s 10 years of huge tax hikes to pay for 6 years of “reform”.  But just like every other Democrat health care bill, the taxes will generate less revenue than they expect and most of the “savings”, particularly cuts in Medicare, will never occur.

The  Senate bill includes a bribe of seniors who are worried about cuts in Medicare spending. The bribe is in the form of $500 extra toward Medicare prescription drug coverage to cover part of the “doughnut hole” in that system’s coverage.

I can’t help but wonder how many Americans recognize just how far towards socialism we’ve already gone when millions of citizens are so dependent on and feel entitled to the government’s providing their medicine.  It’s socialist, unAmerican, unconstitutional, and bankrupting the nation.  But we have not one elected  politician of influence willing to say so.

There is nothing in the Senate bill (or the House bill) which will curtail our high rate of health insurance inflation.  Indeed, these bills will cause health care spending to get even more out of control by even further separating the consumer from the providers.  The health care issue that Americans care about MOST is cost, not “universal coverage”.  These measures will increase costs and kill jobs in the process.

In short, the Senate bill, like every other bill we’ve seen from the Democrats in recent months, is an utter disaster. It proves, if nothing else, that elections have consequences.  I continue to believe we’re living Atlas Shrugged.  In that spirit, let them pass whatever they can.  And then let’s have the next American revolution: A generation of Congressman who run on a specific platform of overturning this Congress’s legislation.

Craig Silverman on the error of trying 9/11 terrorists in New York

by Rossputin | 3:26 am, November 19, 2009

Local talk radio host and attorney (former prosecutor, now criminal defense) Craig Silverman has written an excellent piece laying out the many reasons why Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other 9/11 terrorists in civilian courts in New York is a stupid and dangerous idea.

See “If This Is War, What Are We Doing?“, Craig Alan Silverman, 11/16/09
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-alan-silverman/if-this-is-war-what-are-w_b_359720.html

Medicare’s “global budget” & bureaucratic medical decisions

by Brian Schwartz | 1:30 am, November 19, 2009

From the Wall Street Journal:
Democrats are quietly attempting to impose a “global budget” on Medicare, with radical implications for U.S. medicine. …
If Democrats impose such a commission nationwide, it would constitute a radical change in U.S. health care. The reason that physician discretion—not Washington’s cost-minded judgments—is at the core of medicine is that usually there [...]

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